Is this a good deal?

[Derrick E.]

Need some advice: I’m a buy and hold investor but I’ve been wanting to fix and flip and came across what I think is a good deal. Can someone more experienced advise me on this?

ARV: $158k (according to Prop Stream)

Asking Price $75k (owner has $68k in it according to prop stream so probably not much wiggle room).

Repairs: Just based on pictures and my experience with fixing up rentals I think $25-30k would be plenty as it’s mainly cosmetics from the pictures.

Obviously I will want to check it out and walk it in person but if those numbers hold up, is this a good deal for a first fix and flip? I have contractors and such to use as I have fixed up homes to cash out refinance in the past. I've completely gutted homes and fixed them in the past. I just chose to keep it as a BRRRR. This is one I would want to sell for my area as it wouldn't make sense to keep as a rental. It's fix and flip or nothing on this deal (for me).

[Will Barnard]

From a back of the napkin analysis (and not knowing the area or the specifics of this project), a purchase of $75k, rehab of $30k and exit at $155k, it has enough room to continue with your due diligence to confirm numbers.

Do NOT rely on Prop Stream for values, get actual comps and walk the comps, look at all photos of the comps and compare finishes. Get a more precise number on rehab, and if you can negotiate purchase price down to give you more room. That said, with the numbers I posted, your acquisition + rehab = 67.7% of the exit value. Since this exit value is under $200k, you need to factor in the timeline, rehab difficulty factor, factor in potential unknown risks (things you run into during the rehab, added holding costs, buyers pool availability at exit compared to today, market condition changes that may occur, etc). Once you have a full scope of work, lock in numbers and your risks are mitigated as much as you can, go for it if the end profit number remains positive for your risk factor and efforts, pull out if not.