What's your favorite "formula" when analyzing a potential flip?

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In my research I've come across several different formulas people use to determine if a flip is worth the risk. The 70% rule [i]seems to be the most used and discussed (?).

While at a workshop recently I met someone who uses this formula:

Figure out ARV.

Deduct 10% of ARV for rehab costs.

Deduct 8% of ARV for all closing costs (including hard money).

Deduct 15% of ARV, which is your target profit.

You're then left with the purchase price.

Does this look good to anyone? Regardless, I'd love to know what formulas work the best for you.What's your favorite "formula" when analyzing a deal?