Long term Appreciation vs cashflow+cashout?

[Sam Bromano]

I'm looking to BRRR and debating on 2 different houses. I have ~180k to play with

The first is a small turnkey small for $150k, already renovated that would yield 2k/m rent. I believe it would appraise at 220k in 1 year and hopefully get my money back and do more after that. At that point it would still cashflow at least 500/m. The problem is it’s small 3br 1bath no basement. Over the long term I don’t think it would appreciate well, but it is on a large parcel of land, and it’s in a C area about an hour from me. There are many of those homes available now but they’re selling like crazy

Then, there’s the 350k short-sale cash only deal that would be a stretch to make work (need to add hml) but will easily appraise for 450k after putting 30k Reno into it. It would rent out for $3200/m. It’s in an A area in my neighborhood , great schools, long term appreciation potential is very high and it’s sort of a steal - nothing is available like this. After refi though I’d be leaving 60k in the house, but it would still cashflow well at $800/m

Do I go for the house that will appreciate better in a safer area but I only get to take back 50-60% of my original $$, or the turnkey that gives it all back to me?