Should I list a Flip in the Winter in Northern Climates

[Anthony Konya]

I am looking at buying a flip using a conventional mortgage on the property and paying for rehab out of pocket. The basic numbers are:

Sale Price: 230k

Rehab Cost: 65k

ARV: 400k

Total Cash in before holding costs: 77k

Holding Costs per Month: 2,500

If I purchase this house I am looking to do some major cosmetic work and sell. Closing would be August 26 and estimate that rehab will take 3 months. This puts me at a position where the house could be put on the market sometime end of November or beginning of December, but the house is located in the snow belt of Ohio. I have had recommendations to hold the house until end of Feb and list then; this will increase my investment into the property by about 10k. The final numbers I am looking at then look like this:

List in the December:

Cash In: 92k

Profit: 50k

ROI: 54% (6 month)

This deal for me is about borderline due to the large cash investment

List in end of Feb:
Cash in: 102k

Profit: 40k

ROI: 39% (10 month)

This is a no-go for me due to ROI and how long my cash is tied up.

I am looking at a few other deals and this one has some other issues such as locking down an exact ARV so I am pretty sure I am going to drop this one, but wanted to check with those that have a lot more experience than me in this. Do you guys list houses in the winter in northern climates or hold them until spring?

Thanks in advance for your responses!