Running numbers on a live in flip

[Jo W.]

Hello,

I'm currently house hacking (Duplex, i live in one unit and renting out the other one). 

My real estate agent contacted me today about a house that he think the seller is willing to sell for 140K and the ARV is 195 - 205 k it needs about 30k worth of work.

The area is much nicer than when i live right now and i can rent my current unit for $800 - $900

The taxes are 4K a year and insurance is about 1k a year.

I was thinking about getting a conventional loan (5% interest 10% down) and fix the house while i live there which means that i will do most of the work myself (So the rehab cost would be around 15 - 20 K) and sell after 2 years so i don't have to pay tax.

How do i run the numbers on it?

If i plug the numbers and don't account for the rent from my unit it looks like it's a bad deal but if i plug the rent of my current unit it seems like a 28% return a year not including the tax benefits.

I'd love to hear your perspective on running the numbers.

Best regards,

Jo