Calculating AVR

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Hey Guys, 

I have a quick question about nailing down the ARV. I have a subject property that looks like a potential deal but in that area it is in, there isn't much sold homes that are high enough. The highest sold house in that area was about $225K (house wasn't updated and still sold that much) and they are asking for $169,900. It does need at least $40-50K or more worth of renovations. My question is how to accurately calculate the ARV so that I won't miss out on a potential deal do to my under or over estimating of the ARV?