Are these numbers in The House Flipping Framework book correct?

[Chris Magistrado]

I'm a nerd and big numbers guy. 
I wanted to check the calculations that are presented in James Dainard's book, The House Flipping Framework: The Tactical Playbook to Scale your Real Estate Portfolio and Reinvest your Profits. I started by looking over the numbers and used the Annual Rate of Return formula, along with the Cash-on-Cash formula that are mentioned in earlier chapters of the books. I also took this entire section, and fed it to both ChatGPT and Google' Gemini's AIs to see if the calculations seemed correct. I will provide the text I gave both LLMs, what they said, and the confusion I have.

Please Note: I want to first discuss the calculations first, and then discuss the likelihood of this.

---Start of Text----

"""POWER OF FLIPPING Case Study with $50,000

We see that the $50,000 investment made a $41,125 gain the first year in business, turning $50,000 into $91,125, which you roll into the next flip. Repeat the process to earn a $73,375 gain, which you roll over once more to end three years with about $174,000 and a 348% return. If the same client merely invested with a gains plan, or 25% return, they’d end three years with only $43,500, which is $130,500 less than flipping! Instead of choosing one or the other, I’d encourage you to do both (when you’re ready). Flip to build cash and reinvest to build investments for your future. If you use the $43,500 to buy value-add rental properties, and keep that money rolling, it’s a way to expedite the entire process. 

Here is the statement expanded to include formulas for doing one flip per year, two flips per year, five flips per year, and ten flips per year: 

One flip per year: 
If you start with $50,000 and do one flip per year, aiming for a 35 percent return, your progress would be: 
Year 1: $50,000 + (35% × $50,000) = $67,500
Year 2: $67,500 + (35% × $67,500) = $91,125
Year 3: $91,125 + (35% × $91,125) = $123,019

Two flips per year:
If you start with $50,000 and do two flips per year, aiming for a 35% return on each, your progress would be:
Year 1: $50,000 + (0.7 × $50,000) = $85,000
Year 2: $85,000 + (0.7 × $85,000) = $144,500
Year 3: $144,500 + (0.7 × $144,500) = $245,650

Five flips per year: If you start with $50,000 and do five flips per year, aiming for a 35% return on each, your progress would be:
Year 1: $50,000 + (1.75 × $50,000) = $137,500
Year 2: $137,500 + (1.75 × $137,500) = $378,125
Year 3: $378,125 + (1.75 × $378,125) = $1,039,844

Ten flips per year: If you start with $50,000 and do ten flips per year, aiming for a 35% return on each, your progress would be: 
Year 1: $50,000 + (3.5 × $50,000) = $225,000
Year 2: $225,000 + (3.5 × $225,000) = $787,500
Year 3: $787,500 + (3.5 × $787,500) = $2,756,250

The key points remain the same, which is to aim for a high return through flipping, reinvest the profits to compound the gains, and be disciplined in order to build significant wealth over just a few years of this real estate investing strategy. If you can be highly disciplined the first few years, the compound effect will take over, and that’s when you make the real money. If you’re only thinking about making an extra $10,000 per year, or even doubling your salary, it’s possible you’re thinking too small. Think big, but have a plan to match your most ambitious goals and stick with it. Invest in your future with your actions, your mindset, and your resources."""


--AI Analysis----
ChatGPT pointed out that the math for Ten flips per year, the text shows$787,500 for Year 2, when it should be $1,012,500, adding that for Year 3, the result should be $4,556,250 as the initial investment should 

Gemini said this:
The math for the "POWER OF FLIPPING Case Study with $50,000" appears to be accurate, based on the information in the source. The case study illustrates the potential for exponential growth through house flipping by reinvesting profits. Here's a breakdown:
• Year 1: A $50,000 investment yields a $41,125 gain, bringing the total to $91,125. This represents a 70% return on the initial investment.
• Year 2: The $91,125 is reinvested, resulting in a $73,375 gain, bringing the total to approximately $164,500.. This represents a 80.5% return on the previous year's total.
• Year 3: The $164,500 is reinvested, resulting in a gain that brings the total to approximately $285,000. The text specifically states the end of three years with about $174,000 and a 348 percent return but the table in the text shows a different number. The 348% is calculated based on the $174,000/$50,000 = 3.48.

--Conclusion/Confusion...Likelihood of Execution----
I attempted to plug these into the CoC formula and ARR but got the same percentages for both.

I'd love to see some actual numbers for flipper's careers, and the formulas for expected returns if flippers are willing to share them. If not, my inbox is open to connect.

 It seems like the initial amount for the 1st year on 10 flips is off. As it scales to 10 flips/year, the initial investment for the first year, is still $50k for the total of 10 properties, meaning you'd have about $5k to spend on a flip. This doesn't seem very do-able, does it?