Estimating the ARV on an Outlier

[Rob Carmody]

I am looking at a fixer upper that is listed at $285K in the suburbs (SFH). I took the average price of all similar sized (4B2.5B), listings within 1mi, and within the past 6mo and the ARV that I got was about $370K. Usually, I also filter my comps to similar sized houses (+/- 20%), but this house is 2600sqft and the next closest home is 2100 sqft (most are 1500 - 1700 sqft). This is completely screwing up my calculations, as when you look at the $/sqft, the lowest is non-updated at $135 ($347K), then most are about $195-220 ($501K-$550K) and some even range $230-240 ($600Kish).

These are all completely different numbers... How would an appraiser go about deciding what the ARV would be (I'm doing a rehab loan so would need an accurate ARV)?

The solds data:

Price_x Sqft_x $/Sqft_x
540,000.00 2,394.00 226.00
449,900.00 1,900.00 237.00
400,000.00 2,031.00 197.00
395,000.00 2,067.00 191.00
390,000.00 1,834.00 213.00
381,000.00 1,790.00 213.00
380,000.00 1,900.00 200.00
365,000.00 1,733.00 211.00
359,500.00 1,218.00 295.00
350,000.00 1,759.00 199.00
335,000.00 2,490.00 135.00
335,000.00 1,794.00 187.00
330,000.00 1,352.00 244.00
310,000.00 1,560.00 199.00
275,000.00 1,500.00 183.00
255,000.00 1,294.00 197.00
235,000.00 1,756.00 134.00