First solo renovation considering backing out

[Ishaya Daniel]

Hello! Firstly let me say this is my first post. I’m in the process of acquiring a property for my first solo renovation project but I’m having a bit of a dilemma.

I’ve done one renovation project with a partner completed about 18 months ago  - long story short didn’t go well because the contractor essentially quit. Ended my making about 5k.

Im under contract for a single family home, comps are in the $550k-575k ballpark. Under contract for 400k, I estimate 65k reno costs plus another 15-20k in renovation loan costs (mainly mortgage payments until the project is done) at about 6.3% APR to bring it up to that 550-575 ARV. I am using a conventional renovation loan.

Given these numbers I’m estimating 65k profit BEFORE seller fees, I’m also considering living in the house if house prices don’t hold up.

Given that we are in an environment where house prices are almost certain to fall or stay flat and the amount of time and energy requirements of a renovation I’m wondering if this deal even makes sense, my biggest concerns are having to put this house on the market early next spring amid declining housing prices and taking a loss - or even worse not being able to sell and carrying a $3500 monthly mortgage payment (my W2 earns me 140k a year but I’m providing for a wife and two kids). My current housing costs are $1400 monthly and I’m just not sure this is the right time to step up into the next bigger house if for some reason the market next spring is bad and I can’t sell for what I am looking for.

I still have the option to walk away, not sure what to do.