Help analyzing a deal?

[Matthew Koch]

Just wanted to run the numbers for this property that, yes, I've posted before as an attempt to wholesale to no avail, and now trying to see if I could get it for myself and flip it in two years?

Purchase price 360k 

current ARV is 490-520k

looking to be financed by me with JV or private money lender for 20% down, $72k plus rehab of approx. $90k to total $162k

maybe offer lender 12% with a note of 20 years, or 240 months equal 756 a month

total financed would be $181,440

property is 8 bedroom and 3 bathroom but could easily be 4th. 

I'm thinking student housing and 300 per bed and two beds per room or 600 per room and 4800 a month. Gross. Evaluate for 100 in water, 100 insurance, 400 property management and 100 for power to be billed back to the students as that's Included in rent for 300 per bed. 

4800 income, at 100% occupancy, 1717.19 mortgage based on 30 years and 4.2%, and private money lender payment of $756 

leaves $2326.05 to then take out capex.

not sure on those items yet for actual numbers on roof, heating unit or landscaping expense, however, estimate roof of 10k or hold back $168x5 years.

Leaving $2158.05

heating unit maybe $5000 or hold back $84 bucks. 

Leaving $2074

Water heater possibly $200-$1000 so hold back $17 bucks.

Leaving $2058.05 cash flow.

Unless I missed something, does this look right? $4800 income (100% occupancy), $1717.95 mortgage, private money lender $756, capex $268 a month is $2058.05 or $1029.025 at half vacancy. 

Maybe $100 a month for yard or lawn care or I'll manage that part of it myself.

Property Manager should take care of advertising and screening tenants as well as showing property and finally completing work orders as needed and billing me directly....

Is this a deal or walk away?

Thank you