Adjusting ARV's for the potential recession?

[Brittany Edwards chu]

Hello! I came across an amazing REO I want to flip, in a highly desirable area in northern Jersey. Its mostly cosmetic updates, and some higher end finishes because of the pp. ARV currently is in the 1.3mil range. My question, is if rehab takes a year, which I am giving myself as a cushion, and we do enter a recession, how much should I safely assume home prices will depreciate by that time? At that price point will there even be a notable decline? According to my agent, home prices were somewhat shielded during the Great Recession due to the close proximity to the city and still strong demand. He said there was about a 15% market adjustment. I'm curious what others have heard and are planning for in their own business?

[Scott E.]

1. We are already in a recession

2. In my opinion if you are buying today you should be buying at a discount, and forecasting further discounts. I just bought a flip a couple of weeks ago. I paid about 15% less than the exact same house sold for 6 months ago. And in my underwriting, I'd still be profitable on this deal if the market drops an additional 20% from here.