National Association of Realtors expects 8% increase in 2021

[Henry Lazerow]

Interesting...

"WASHINGTON (December 10, 2020) – Expect the post-pandemic economic rebound, improving job conditions and stable interest rates to continue in 2021, according to a survey of more than 20 top U.S. economic and housing experts. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research, unveiled the consensus forecast today during NAR's second annual Real Estate Forecast Summit.

The group of experts predicted:

• Gross Domestic Product growth of 3.5% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022;
• An annual unemployment rate of 6.2% next year with a decline to 5.0% in 2022;
• Average annual 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 3.0% and 3.25% for 2021 and 2022, respectively;
• Annual median home prices to increase by 8.0% in 2021 and by 5.5% in 2022;
• Housing starts of 1.50 million next year and 1.59 million in 2022;
• The share of the U.S. workforce working from home to be 18% in 2021 – down from 21% in 2020 – and 12% in 2022; and
• Small declines in office and hotel vacancy rates in 2021, with a slight increase in retail vacancies next year.

When asked if the Federal Open Market Committee will change the federal funds rate in 2021, 90% of the experts surveyed said they expect no change in the current rate of 0%. For 2022, the experts predict a rate increase of 0.25%."

[Russell Brazil]

Originally posted by @Steve Morris:

Since NAR always has an up bias, I'd say 8% = flat to slightly down.

NAR predicted that in 2018, prices would rise by 5%, they rose 4.1%. In 2019, home prices would rise 3.1%, they ended up rising 5.6%. In 2020 NAR predicted a rise of 3.6%, and we have about 6 weeks til they have national data to see where they ended up, but its looking like it will far exceed that prediction. These predictions are generally made by Lawrence Yun one of the most respected economists in the country. At least the last few years, the predictions have been pretty close. I couldnt find the information from the 2017 Forecast summit, so I stopped there.