How long will my area stay “sketch” for?

Question

The area of my building in west Humboldt park over by Augusta Blvd & west of Hamlin ( especially my block) is always busy and well.. you know, sketchy. I understand this can change drastically within the next few years. But I’d like more experienced opinions. How long do you think it’ll stay this way for?

I’m wondering because obviously if the area changes quicker than expected, value increases.

Jonathan Klemm · Answer

Hey Account Closed pointed out it's far away from the blue line which is the main path of progress for NW Chicago.  I know the exact area you are talking about my friend lives at Augusta and Holman.

The more investors that buy over in that area the faster it will change (maybe you can help make the change quicker!), but it's in a tough spot with Garfield park just south of that area.  My guess is you'll see changes over the next 2-3 years, which is honestly pretty short.

Jason Albasha · Answer

@Jonathan Klemm I'm surprised you think we'll see progress this fast. I'm hesitant to say anything in real estate changes that fast. Historically changes have taken a decade or more to progress. Look at Lincoln Park, Lakeview, etc. Even more recently, Logan Square.

People have been saying Bridgeport/Bronzeville will be on the come up for more than a decade now. If we're talking south of that area I think that south of Ogden, around Marshall Blvd. and Cermak has a higher chance of appreciation than anything north of Ogden. It has all the characteristics such as transportation (Pink Line), commercially zoned avenue (Cermak), close by park, and a large boulevard similar to Logan Blvd.

Henry Lazerow · Answer

Drugs need to get sold somewhere. I think its unrealistic the whole city can gentrify, there will always be open air drug markets run by gangs in a large city such as chicago.I find it a lot easier to predict gentrification from working class to A class. For example Albany Park I predicted a few years ago and it now has more and more luxury single families and trendy millennial catering bars popping up. Lots of people on this forum predicted avondale 5 years or so ago and it has continued to boom and turn close to class A. These are “safe” investments where you have pretty good tenants either way and dont need to worry much about your building being broken into.If you look at East Garfield Park during 07 08 everyone thought it was gentrifing and prices shot up only to crash way harder then rest of market. Just look at the shootings map data now and 14 years later although some growth, I would not call it gentrified or bet that it wont fall way more then the surrounding areas again.

Henry Lazerow · Answer

I don't see that area changing anytime soon. North of Grand is another story and getting the higher income push over from Logan but Grand has unfortunately stayed a very solid dividing line.

Jason Albasha · Answer

Probably not for a long time. I avoided anything between that Amtrak line that divides Grand Ave and the one that runs parallel to Lake St... matter a fact just call it the Green Line that's on Lake St. even down to 290. (matter fact, just take it all the way down to Kentucky!).

That kind of triangle, going West doesn't have CTA service, therefore transportation sucks and doesn't allow it to be connected to the remainder of the city where most of the jobs are.

Jonathan Klemm · Answer

@Jason Albasha - Totally agree...nothing changes fast.  I was talking more specifically to the SW corner of Humboldt Park.  It's on the fringe with Garfield Park South.  We are looking to make some mult-family purchases North Franklin Blvd. and East Kedzie.  Some of those fringe areas are the ones that see the most appreciation over a short time like 2-3 years.

Change in my opinion is all relative to each person and what their comfort level is and experience.

Paul De Luca · Answer

Like others have pointed out, likely not for a while. The trend of median home prices is positive in Humboldt Park (~22% last year) but most of the value increase is probably coming from NE Humboldt Park.

Joe Splitrock · Answer

There are cities or neighborhoods that turned around and other that got worse over time. It depends on several factors. Local economy is critical. If people want to move into the area for jobs, they may be willing to take less desirable locations, then fight to improve them once they get there. They will rehab properties and push the city to address the sketchiness issues. Another critical factor is local government officials and how aggressively they attack crime. This generally requires the residents to get mad enough that they demand or vote for change. Of course even the best politician may have trouble changing the tide if the city lacks proper financial management or lacks tax revenue. Some cities get caught in a cycle where affluent tax payers move out, causing tax revenue to decrease, making problems worse. If it gets bad enough, even businesses move out because crime makes it hard to operate a retail operation.

I don't have any specific knowledge of your location. I am just commenting in general how cities have turned the tide in the past.

How long will my area stay “sketch” for?

Most Popular Reply