Continue renting or buy.

[Nate Bartlett]

We have been renting our home for 4 years at $2400. The landlord is happy with us because we always pay early, and take care of the home like it's our own. He has continued to renew our lease at the original rate and will probably continue to do so for at least a few more years. Our current lease expires in just over a year, May of 2023.

We are in a position to buy. Have 5-10% for a down payment, reserves, and are pre-approved for well over what the house would sell for. I had an idea to approach him and ask him to sell us the house. He knew that we eventually might want to buy it, and agreed that he would sell it to us when we were ready. I believe that he would end our lease early and sell us the home. The upside for him is that he built the house 4.5 years ago, has no mortgage, and gets the benefit of the crazy appreciation. When he originally rented it to us he was listing it for sale at $385k. Comps are now selling for ~$500k in our subdivision. He could easily cash out and walk away, while also helping us. 

Here's the part I'm unsure of. I know RE prices will continue to rise this year. Again, if we continue to rent, our payment is $2400 for at least the next 13 months. If we were to buy it with 5-10% down right now, our payment with PMI would be about $3500.00. Does it make financial sense to buy the house? We don't want to rent forever, and we also don't want to be in the position next year where we will be priced out of the type of home that we want because of the continued high appreciation.

We also have goals to invest in STR properties soon, so we would like to keep our reserves in good shape. We had considered just continuing to rent and buying an STR now so that we could start cash flowing right away which would put us in a better position to buy in the future.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated. 

Thanks

[Nathan Gesner]

Here's my perspective. You'll save $1,100 a month if you continue to rent, not to mention the cost of taxes, insurance, and maintenance. That's at least $15,000 in your pocket. The market may grow some more, but it can't keep this upward trend forever. Inflation is going to force people to tighten their belts, the "free" COVID money from 2020/2021 is drying up, and mortgage rates are going to continue increasing in 2022 which starts making these high prices less affordable. A lot of really smart people say we're getting ready to peak and probably see prices come down, which I agree with.

If I were in your shoes, I would count my blessings and stay put. Save up, wait for the crazy market to settle for 1-2 years, and then look for a house when the markets are reasonable.