Please help with feedback on 8-unit apartment investment

[Matt D.]

I acquired a land near downtown Oakland (close San Pablo Ave and 27th st) with a plan to build quickly an 8unit apartment (I consulted with city before purchasing it).

The land has been still there for 2 years without doing anything. Recently I see the Real Estate market in south bay is kinda doing some correction and the real estate has been doing very good for about 8 years. I was feeling it would crash very soon with the respect to real estate cycle. I reached out to my agent by whom i purchased the land. She said

1/ Real Estate in Oakland is still doing well and actually there are a lot of development going on now because the SanFran market is kinda over-priced and people are moving to Oakland.

2/ If I am worried about the market she can check with some people who asked to buy the land. The interest party replied quickly with an offer which did not meet my asking price and I rejected that offer. They then followed up with counter offer equal to my asking price (just about 100k more than the price I purchased 2 years ago)

Just want to give you some quick context of the my analysis of the investment:

---

We are going to build 8 unit apartment.

Building cost: 1m to 1.5m
permit cost: 50k
selling cost: 4% to 5%
price per units: 300k-600k (850sqft + 200sqft mezzanine 2bed/2bath each unit) -> price in total: 2.4m to 4.8m.

Location: near 27th st and san pablo ave which is near downtown Oakland.

----

In the worst case we sell at 300k (brand new apartment 2bed/2bath 850sqft + 200sqft) we still make some good profit.

What I'm not sure is about the market - i'm just afraid of keeping some unused land when the market would crash very soon.

I welcome and appreciate your thoughts. Thanks in advance.