Pulaski County SFR numbers for May 3 - 9

[Mark Rogers]

More of the same for Pulaski County single family residential sales for the week of May 3-9. Sales volume was down 50% from 2019, but houses are selling at a median of 11 days on market for 98.4% of list price. Inventory remained at a very low 1.2 months.

In another very positive sign, real estate showings in Arkansas surpassed 2019 numbers for the first time since the pandemic restrictions. Arkansas showings plunged after March 17 and were tracking at around 60% below 2019 numbers. Showings began a sharp rise after April 12, surpassed 2019 numbers on May 3, and ended the week 19.2% higher than 2019 numbers.

[David Ginn]

@Mark Rogers


What appears to be happening nationally is that the markets are bouncing back strong.

If you look at the showing histories of listings on the MLS, there were 85% drops in showings due to the Coronavirus. We are now seeing strong rebounds across the board in many states. In addition, we anticipate seeing pent up demand that pushes past year over previous year's numbers. (Those buyers that have been holding off due to the virus, now coming at full force to purchase the property.)

Texas, as an example, is already back to normal market showings with a little over a week of opening back up.

I learned the hard way to track market cycles. In 2006, 2007, and 2008 market collapse, I lost tens of millions of dollars. This market cycle is different, however. The key this time is to keep your eye on the numbers, as Mark is doing. We will see drops in closings going into May because the lenders have stopped many closings. This has happened due to people being furloughed. They said they will lend again once those buyers who were furloughed get back to work.

It is very important to not be shocked by drops in closings for April and May. The key is to watch the showings. Look for pent up demand. If the showings convert to closings, these will be the numbers to watch. If we start to see demand significantly decrease, then it will show that Covid-19 has created major economic damage in itself.

I specifically told my investors that there were no real strong numbers that supported a strong market downturn pre-COVID-19. In fact, there were exceptionally hot market signals nationally in the sub 200k markets and sub 300k markets in many places in the US.

It is important to watch the new construction numbers. Builders have a tendency to overbuild. This, in turn, increases supply and by its nature cuts down demand. When this happens, we should watch the markets fall back based on oversupply. This is why it is wise to flip in the markets where there is no new construction competition.
Pay attention to SSD (Specific Supply and Demand), also pay attention to GSD (General Supply and Demand).

Stay on your game and keep watching the numbers or the market will eat your lunch and dinner