Astute investor or lucky idiot?

[Yan P.]

I was thinking about the real estate bubble and there being experienced investors out there who saw it coming and called it "obvious." On the other hand, there were also very experienced investors who were completely blindsided. My question, for investors who have seen more than one market cycle and came out of the last one alive, is what kind of analysis did you use to see it coming? Price to replacement cost; Price to rents; Transaction volumes; Mortgage qualifications? Or were you just what economist Nassim Taleb calls a "Lucky idiot"?