Thinking of Selling in Bellingham, Looking for Advice

[Adam Q Berry-Huff]

A Little Background

I bought my first home in Bellingham about 4 years ago for $295k. The current Redfin estimate is at $419k and I owe $266k. So I essentially have about $150k in equity. It is being rented and it is cash flowing. I don't particularly need to home for any reason nor do I have any emotional attachment to it. 

The Question 

Anyway, as the price continues to climb, it has become increasingly tempting to sell it and rebuy the market after we see a dip. My question is this: I hear people talk about Bellingham like they don't expect to see it dip with the rest of the market. Or at least not to the same extent. Do you think there's any truth to this? Are there ever really exceptions? Is anyone familiar enough with Bellingham to shine some light on this? I do realize that I am somewhat asking a question nobody can really answer but I'm wondering what the opinions are on this.

[Randall Prosise]

I would think the question you need to ask yourself is how you would use the proceeds. Your equity is decent, but not like you have doubled your money (yet). Would you 1031 exchange for a bigger investment, and re-set the equity building clock? Also, where would you re-invest? I have built a decent amount of equity in several downtown Seattle condos I own (50-125% equity in each one), and will be selling them, using a 1031 exchange, to buy in a lower priced market I have identified to get more bang for my buck. I can basically trade my three 1 bedroom units and my one 2 bedroom unit for a 24-unit apartment building in another upcoming market.
I would rather turn that equity I have built into cash flow as I get closer to retirement from my salaried job.
I also am nervous about the Seattle market and what the government is doing there, not to mention the pending crash everyone seem to be thinking will happen within the next 2-3 years.
Bellingham is definitely a desirable location with seemingly less of the possible crash factor Seattle has, so you may be in a good place to continue to build up your equity for a while. You know your property and how desirable it is for potential renters, and also if you could lower the rent if you had to with a rental market downturn.
Trading for another like property may not be such a great deal. These are big factors in my opinion.
But coming full circle, how would that money be re-invested, and is that a better deal for you.
I think you have a good problem to solve at this point, and I hope my input helps.

Randy