Best market & strategy for appreciate now cash flow later

[Michelle Reid]

My husband and I live in MA.  We are looking for LTR in FL.  

We have owned a multi-family in the past and got to experience ALL the pros and cons of being a landlord.  We've seen rents DEcrease, 2+ months vacancies and the joy of getting sued and selling in 2010.  So we are really trying to minimize the pain this time by getting as much info as possible.

We are looking for income in retirement.  Retirement would be about 5-8 years down the road.  We do not NEED cash flow now but would like to avoid negative cash flow over $200/month.

Our budget is around $250 - 300k.

We are trying to decide on a market.  We have narrowed down to Cape Coral, Tampa, Kissimee, Lakeland (general areas).  The theory is to find the next up and coming market with a discount to future value.  Or is that false logic?  

What market and strategy would you suggest?  Buy a LTR in a less competetive market and scale in a year or two?  Buy in a competitive market and scale?   I know appreciation is not guaranteed.

We prefer the markets with industry rather than solely tourism for the LTR appeal.

Thanks for reading!

[Chris Adams]

I am currently also looking into the various markets in FL. I personally am from SoFla and know certain areas very well, and I can't say the same for the rest of the state. The thing about Florida, as some other states can also relate to, is that every sub-geographic area will completely change the feel/vibe/cost, etc, which in turn will change the demographic/income ratio/quality/value, etc. 

For the price point in which you are bringing to the table, I would search the outskirt towns of Tampa (booming sister-city to Miami/Ft Lauderdale), Jacksonville (currently going through massive overhaul), Tallahassee (state capital with a large state college, great for college focused rentals), Gainesville (University of Florida, large medical employer, and lots of natural geographic attractions such as springs), and I would swap Lakeland for Ocala (Lakeland is notorious for sinkholes which insurance will not cover, and Ocala is currently a big focus for development and tech moving in such as Amazon). 

Tampa proper, Orlando, Miami/Ft Lauderdale are three of the largest markets in the US currently - with rental rates that are keeping up with insane growth rates - but it will be hard to find something that will not require months and months of searching and being beaten out by cash investors with higher than appraised offers. And you will most likely have to do some updates/renos to get it in prime rental status, so more 

That being said, I am from SoFla and currently own a fix-in-flip condo where the HOA fees keep going up. Luckily I purchased off market just before the boom and have rode the inflation up, so my cashflow after we move on will still be well positive. We too are looking to purchase our next rental next year, and what I am mentioned is a rough breakdown of our findings so far for FL. If you were to ask me what smaller town will go through the largest growth in a decade or so from now, I will say Ocala.

But as all things RE, do your due diligence. Review the growth statistics of the cities mentioned, look at the development incentives the cities are offering to developers, review the average income/job growth rates, and pair that up with rental rates/increases. 

Hope my coffee-fueled ramblings helped!