Yucca Valley, CA STRs - advice needed for new STR purchase

[Paul Pellegrin]

Hello to the Yucca Valley/JT STR community,

My wife and I are strongly considering purchase of a 3 bedroom/2bath 1578 sq ft. in the Western Hills neighborhood of Yucca Valley for STR. House has great valley/mountain views, is close to national park and other attractions, and is on a half acre lot with much potential to develop in the future for additional outdoor amenities. The septic waste system will need to be connected to city sewer in the spring, which will run about $4200, and the house also needs a couple safety repairs/upgrades, which cost another $1500 roughly. We also estimate we would need to invest about 15-30k up front for painting/furnishing/landscaping/amenities in order to get it ready as a vacation rental. Airdna shows yearly predicted income for the address of 111k, and it looks like our yearly costs to break even on the property would run about 38k all in for mortgage, insurance, taxes, utilities, maintenance, etc. We feel like there is still room for entry into the market for a house this size that has nice amenities (hot tub, BBQ, games, etc.), but are still a little uncertain given concerns about STR market saturation in the area, and potential drop in home values over the next 6-12 months. We would greatly appreciate any input from the community regarding current market conditions, potential for income, and ultimately, whether this sounds like a good deal or a bad deal.

thanks in advance for your comments!