Student rental-unique situation would love your thoughts

[Chris Eidson]

I am looking at purchasing a 4br, 4bath house that is in a gated community that is exclusively rented to college students. Even though these are SFR, they operate like an apartment complex. There are on very nice on site ammenities and on site property management that rents all of the houses by the BR. I can buy it for around $205-$210K and gross rents should be around $2500-$2600. Occupancy is 85% at the lowest and 120% leading up to Fall semester. Many of these homes are purchased by parents of students as a cheap housing option with some residual cash flow. There is a $240/mo HOA which takes care of lawn maintenance and security. I've run the numbers and my total COC with equity capture comes in between 19-20%.

The only issue is there has been very little appreciation during this market bubble.  In fact, this development started in 2008 and most everyone is just now back to even.  Would you take this deal?