New to RE-Bay Area investing question - Cashflow vs appreciation?

[Vivan Bhalla]

Hi Everyone,

I have been reading the book on Rental Property investing by Brandon Turner and it is helping me a lot. Brandon always mentions that appreciation is like gambling and a speculation. We should not buy any properties based on speculation. He says the first thing we should look for is positive cashflowing properties. But people from the bay area know this very well that here it is basically the appreciation which matters as most of the properties are negative cashflowing for a long time. 

I currently have 50k worth for downpayment (700k loan) and was looking to buy a home with FHA loan and house hack. that way I will save up living expenses and also taxes. In my range, there were a few houses in San Bruno but only 2 bd and the numbers did not make any sense. Also, the only places that makes sense were places in East Bay (Hayward, Oakland, Richmond etc). Now, the only thing I am confused about is which location should I choose and also should I ride this appreciation roller coaster? How do you people find out if a property is going to appreciate or not?

Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

Thanks