Moving family (and RE business) up to NorCal from SoCal

[Michael You]

BP community - my first post in years, if not ever, but been a member for a long time. I currently operate a retail and residential property management team, along with a couple MFH developments in LA County. 

Some personal life changes have me considering moving back up to NorCal south bay area. Anyone on here with similar experience? Where are the development opportunities that make financial sense up there? Getting out of the Bay Area, to areas like Sacramento and Modesto seem like the only options. 

[Wes Blackwell]

@Michael You -- Great question! I would say it really all depends on what you're looking for, as each area is going to offer you something completely different.

For example, if you're looking to sell real estate and your job & income is most important to you, I'd recommend the Bay Area. Higher prices means a higher commission, so for the same work invested you're making double the commission. That will easily cover the increased living expenses. If it ends with the bubble bursting you'll be in a prime position to capitalize when prices hit rock bottom.

If you're looking to buy a house on the other hand, I'd recommend avoiding the Bay Area... and look to Sacramento, Modesto, or even Stockton/Lodi/Tracy instead. No sense paying $600,000 for a 1950's crapshack, and the Bay Area has a 45-60% bubble risk, while Sacramento only has 40%. San Francisco has already surpassed it's 2006 peak, while Sacramento is at June 2004 levels (peak was in August of '05).

As far as development opportunities go, it really depends on what kind of development you're looking to make. Single family residential? Multifamily? Commercial? How long are you looking to hold it? Etc. If you tell us a little more about what you're looking for more experts will be able to chime in help you. Anyhoo, best of luck!