What's going on with our market? How to navigate

[Ryan Hoover]

I don't know if we can chalk it all up to COVID, but there is an alarming shortage of sellers coming to the market.  At the same time, interest rates are at record lows and the demand for the Phoenix-area real estate remains strong.  Investors seem to have dialed back their activity and I have seen a good amount elect to sell and take advantage of large appreciation profits.  Snowbirds (seasonal visitors) are choosing to stay away while we make national headlines for our outbreak.  It's questionable whether things will die down enough for them to make the large economic impact this winter/spring that we are accustomed to. 

My question is, how have you adjusted your strategy?  Any assumptions or theories that you are playing out?

Here is the residential supply for Maricopa County.  I can't recall an inventory level so low.  Making it great for sellers but difficult for buyers.  We are back to only a few days on market and multiple offer in some areas and price ranges.

[Stone Jin]

@Ryan Hoover Our strategy for the last 3 years has been to sell properties we no longer wish to keep in the Phoenix portfolio and 1031 exchange into much better cashflowing property out of state. I don't see this changing as long as we have property that is not performing based on return on equity or unfriendly HOA or any other condition that affects our mental well being.

With that said, I think the Phoenix market for cashflow is game over. It's rare to find any MLS listing where you would cashflow more than a few percents (mid single digit) with 20% down. I think the people who are finding some success are the creative financing folks (sub2, lease option) etc.