Mesa, Glendale, & Casa Grande

[Scott Jacewicz Okelly]

I know the Casa Grande inclusion is a little throwing but I have faith in the growth of that market long-term (the kind of investing I am doing). My general question is just what can I look forward to in Mesa or Glendale. If anyone has experience in Casa Grande that insight would be awesome but I understand if its limited data points. Anything specific about Mesa or Glendale that would trip me up? Haven't yet picked a property so still in the research stage. Any help would be great!

Thanks!

[Wes Blackwell]

@Scott Jacewicz Okelly

Mesa, AZ had an appreciation rate of roughly 5.96% last year. The median home price started off 2017 at $218k and ended the year at $231k. I think you're going to see continued growth into the future because that's still roughly $16k below the median sales price for the entire Phoenix Metro Area. Glendale is tracking right below Mesa at $220k and they experience the same ups and down throughout the season. 

Overall, a rising tide lifts all boats, and Phoenix lead the nation in population growth last year. So there probably won't be too much of a difference in appreciation between Mesa and Glendale in that regards since they're both priced similarly. 

For Mesa, I would stick to the north and far east side if you can. Taking a look at the violent crime map over the past six months, the large majority of it is grouped on the western side of town. See below:

Glendale on the other hand doesn't seem to have any areas relatively free from violent crime like Mesa does, so if I had to choose between the two I would pick Mesa because it's less likely you'll accidentally buy in the wrong part of town:

Casa Grande on the other hand is relatively light. Being a smaller city, it doesn't attract as much homelessness, gangs, and general poverty as larger metros do.

The thing about Casa Grande is many people coming from out of state are going to say "Casa What?" and have no idea where that's at. Being a smaller market it will also have less jobs, and let's face it... probably the most important thing about deciding where to live in the Phoenix metro area is proximity to work. 

And that's why it's a "cool" market according to Zillow, while Glendale and Mesa are "Hot" and "Very Hot"

https://www.zillow.com/casa-grande-az/home-values/

https://www.zillow.com/glendale-az/home-values/

https://www.zillow.com/mesa-az/home-values/

So taking all of the above into consideration, I would confidently say that Mesa is your best choice. You can buy in an area free of crime, it's a hot market so housing prices are going up, and it's bringing more jobs into the other as the other posters have stated above. 

The only real positive I see to Casa Grande is (1) it's cheaper, so perhaps you might get better cashflow or ROI, and (2) it's in the path of the Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix to Tucson) so there is the potential that over the next 30 years as the area doubles in population from 6 million to 12 million you might experience some significant appreciation.

Hope this information helped! If you have any more questions just reach out and ask and we'll all get you pointed in the right direction :-)