First real estate purchase - would LOVE advice!

[Sean McMinn]

Hi all, 

First post on the forums...and we're getting ready to pull the trigger on a property to use for short-term rentals! Looking at a house near the Shenandoah River in the Front Royal region. Here's the airdna page for that region:https://www.airdna.co/vacation...

The property would be 355k, and I *think* we could do $230/night, looking at other places in that area. It has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, and very easily could sleep 8-10 people. We're thinking of starting with 8 max since there's only 2 bathrooms. 

I'm estimating 60% occupancy, which airdna says is low for the area...this would bring in about $4k per month after the airbnb and/or VRBO fees. Maybe a little higher, but let's be conservative :) 

Expenses estimated at $3,162 including the mortgage. Here's the breakdown (cleaning is assuming we charge a little less in cleaning fees than what we pay the cleaners):

expense	cost
Mortgage	$ 1,345.30
property taxes	$ 178.33
Insurance	$ 175.00
electricity	$ 250.00
gas	$ 0
water/sewer	$ 130.00
hoa fees	$ -
cleaning	$ 150.00
consumbale	$ 138.00
internet/cable	$ 100.00
maintanence	$ 295.83
CapEx	$ 207.20
mortgage_ins	$ 93.19
gardening	$ 100.00

So after expenses, monthly cash flow would be about $850. 

Estimating the furnishing + small-ish renovations would be $50k. Along with the down payment and closing, estimating we'd put down $98k upfront total. So with $10,200 in annual positive cashflow, we're looking at a 10.5% return in the first year.

Does this seem right to people? Anything I'm forgetting or should be calculating differently? Thank you!