Estimated Short Term Rental Revenue in Breckenridge, CO

[Zack Friedenberg]

I live in the Denver area and am looking at purchasing a small 1 bed 1 bath condo in Breckenridge to use a few times a year and rent out on Air bnb/VRBO the rest of the year. I have a really good idea of what my expenses will be including everything from HOA to property management (hoping to do most of this myself). However, I am noticing a big difference in my projected revenue when comparing against estimated revenue projections on VRBO and other public sources. Below is my projected revenue for a ski in/ski out 600 sqft condo in Breck:

	Total	Peak Season (% of Total days)	Off Season - (% of Total days)
Occupancy - %	55%	80%	20%
Occupancy - Days	200.75	160.6	40.15
Avg. Daily Rate	$ 200.00	$ 280.00	$ 120.00
	Peak Season	Off Season	Total
Revenue	$ 44,968.00	$ 4,818.00	$ 49,786.00

My projections assume a 55% occupancy rate with 80% of those days coming in the peak season. Based on comparables on VRBO, I'm assuming $280 Avg. Daily rate in the peak season and $120 in the off-season. Estimates I've found during my research are closer to $30,000. Any advice on these projections would be greatly appreciated! I'm hoping this post will help others who are thinking about doing something similiar.