new to short term rentals,[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

[Anna Stratton]

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[Julie McCoy]

Hi @Anna Stratton.  Love that you're looking at Maggie Valley - my family has had a vacation home there for nearly 20 years (and we've been vacationing there for nearly 30), it's one of my favorite places.  However, re: your pro forma - what are you basing the monthly income on?  There's lots of things that impact a short-term rental's performance and value that won't fit into that calculator, such as how many it will accommodate, does it have a view, proximity to attractions, are the roads difficult, etc.  (ours is up 3 miles of steep grade pavement and then another mile of gravel... but the view is to die for)

I would urge you to be especially conservative with your vacancy rate - Maggie is pretty much dead all through the winter, and over the years I've seen many, many small businesses come and go because they couldn't make it through the low season.  3-4 months of little/no business is the entirety of your 33% vacancy.  And while I love it and it's a beautiful place, I don't know how many people consider Maggie a destination, vs. a stop on the way to somewhere else, like Cherokee or Gatlinburg.  (but, you live in Waynesville so presumably you're there a lot more often than I am - maybe all that has changed!)

Other things you need to factor in: utilities like satellite TV/internet (which, since the house probably doesn't have access to cable, internet can be An Issue), and will the HOAs allow short-term rentals?  (in Maggie, I'd think they likely do, but definitely something you want to know before buying)  Look into if you'll owe any lodging tax or otherwise.  Bump up your insurance line-item - commercial insurance for STRs is something you'll need, and it's notably more expensive than a regular homeowner's policy.  Is the house being sold furnished?  If not, you'll have to furnish it; if it is, you'll still have to replace some things and supply more.

Bottom line, I'd encourage you to look at the deal very closely and make sure you have realistic expectations if you decide to move forward.  It could be great - and certainly will be more profitable than a long-term rental in the area - but I have a feeling anything like $1700/mo cash flow is unlikely in the area.