How accurate is AirDNA for STR revenue projection?

[Samuel Boyd]

Hello BP family,

I wanted to get some insight from other STR hosts that have operating revenue numbers. I currently have 1 STR in Palm Bay FL and I am trying to build a system for accurately predicting what revenue we could be generating for the next property we are searching for.

I think the AirDNA rentalizer tool is awesome, but I'm curious as to its accuracy. 

I've compared our actual numbers to what it projects for our property, and I found that AirDNA's projected occupancy is 67% compared to 76% that we are actually seeing. In addition, the projected average daily rate (ADR) is $244 compared to $259 that we are actually seeing (a difference in monthly revenue of about 20% underestimating.

Now this is still pretty close, and I know that it is predicting the "average" property performance based on historical data. I am just curious if other hosts have found similar accuracy or if it is way off in their scenario. Please post your properties AirDNA numbers as well as your actual numbers if you have them and are willing to share!