What metrics/calculations do you use to determine if a market is oversaturated?

[Paul Wolfson]

I'm a numbers person and want my decisions to be guided by data over anecdotes.

With that said, how do you calculate if a market is oversaturated? 

I've seen one interesting approach recently where you can use AirDNA to get the 1-year growth in STR listings and compare that to the 1-year growth in STR revenue. If the amount of listings grew by 25% and the revenue in that market also grew by 25%, then that means supply is meeting demand, which in turn means that market is not oversaturated. However, that is a snapshot of only 1 year. And, it is a "rate of change" type of metric.

I'm wondering if there are other metrics people use to determine market saturation?

[Scott K.]

I'll add something new: Look at the MLS listings and see how many clearly were STRs in the past but now clearly are trying to get out of that business.

How do you know it was a STR? - tons of beds, with sheets on them, with similar bed frames. Hot tubs. Basements with pool/foosball/arcades. Minimal decor. Grey paint. Bunk beds especially.

My area in the Poconos, PA is starting to have a ton of STRs come onto the market. Definitely a bad sign.