Following through on a Townhome near Winter Park, CO

[Alex Walchli]

Hello,

New here and looking for some advice and following through with a vacation townhome.

In Feb of '21 we put some earnest down on a new townhome that had a complete date of Spring '22. That got delayed a few times and now we're looking at a Q4'22/Q1'23 completion date. With each delay I've watched rates rise, and we received a price increase during the lumber shortage. 

Between the price increase, rates doubling since we put earnest down, the delays, and a looming recession, it has made me start to rethink the home.

Some context:

My family and I will use it for a month or so out of the year, during ski season and/or summers, and then STR the rest. I've gone into this not expecting to be cash flow positive as we'll of course want to use it during peak times and with the high property management fees. We can't(and don't want to) manage this ourselves living out of state.

~700K original purchase price

50K price increase to a total of 770K

There was a $1M sale of one these townhomes in the neighborhood back in June and $900K a few weeks ago.

25% down puts an 8% mortgage at ~4800/mo, including property taxes, insurance, and HOA.

2100sq/ft, 3bed + Den, 4 bath

20min drive to Winter Park, on a Golf Course which it overlooks with fairly unobstructed views in the background, 1mi to Granby, CO downtown. We'll of course have a Hot Tub and nice amenities. I'm sort of just talking myself back into it writing this out!

If we walk away, we'll lose $10K in earnest, but our downpayment on upgrades for the home will be refunded. We can then take the downpayment we've stashed away and look for other opportunities, or bet on the market cooling off and try to find an affordable ski in/ski out property.

Would love to hear any and all advice, particularly if you have any local knowledge! Thank you.