Help for an overthinker! - STR/Short Term Rental Markets

[Christine M.]

Hi everyone!! Thank you for reading!

A little about me: 

I've saved money for years to buy my first prop and will short term rent/Airbnb. My budget is around $500-700K. I'm preapproved up to $1M but that's a level of risk I can't handle.  

- I am a scaredy cat and am stuck in analysis paralysis in choosing a market. I have made tons of spreadsheets and used alll the calculators, but it is so property specific that I'm losing my mind. I'd be OK with a profit of a few K a year if there's potential for big increases in appreciation. I've looked at homes in ALL of these areas. 

Anyone have advice/thoughts on where I should choose? Focusing on one market would make my life less stressful! And that's always good ;) 

Analysis/Concerns: 

I'm interested in the following because of their good to great tourism, no income tax (if I decide to go live there for a while), and I'm OK with the regulations I've read about. 

- I'm most interested in the Smokies (the Airdna numbers are great) BUT I'm worried the housing prices jumped an insane amount in the past year or two and that I'll be way overpaying for something that will plummet in value. (The Smokies had the largest % of YoY price growth in 2020-2021 of ANY market I've looked at - that scares the pants off me. There's a lot of new building there also.) 

- I'm least interested in FL because the areas I like have terrible flood predictions for 10 years down the line. I don't want my house to be half the value when I sell,  because the town has infrastructure issues from sea level rise. 

Potential Markets with property types that fit my budget: 

- Smokies, TN (Single Family/SFR in Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville - at least 3 bed/2 ba - I'm counting bonus rooms in the "3 bed" calculation - will install hot tub if not present)

- Nashville, TN (SFR in East Nashville - at least 3 bed/2ba)

- Austin, TX (SFR as close to Downtown as possible with my budget - Windsor Park, far East Austin, South Congress, Montopolis, Franklin Park - at least 3 bed/2ba. A smaller condo, closer to Downtown with permissive HOA would be the BEST but that's almost impossible right now)

- Seattle, WA (Smaller condo close to Downtown with permissive HOA)

- Broward County FL (Palm Beach Gardens, Ft Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Hollywood, Deerfield - at least 3/2 + a pool) 

Again - thank you Bigger Pockets friends + mentors!