Big Bear Short Term Rental Market

[Peter Aziz]

A few weeks ago I published a post on FaceBook outlining the sale of my cabin in the Moonridge neighborhood of Big Bear Lake, highlighting how I was able to sell above list and also above the Zestimate. In the thread, some folks asked why I had decided to sell and I began to highlight some metrics that I was seeing in the STR market in BBL. I noted the year-over-year increase in STR permits, the decrease in average nightly revenue, and the sentiment that economically-incentivized sellers would flood the market after this winter season (effectively increasing housing supply and decreasing prices). Although I don't personally like the trends, they were supported the City of BBL's October Compliance & Occupancy Data, which provided the following:

1 - The occupancy rate for October was 38%, which compares to 55% prior year; 

2 - Average nightly revenue dropped by 36% on a year-over-year basis; and

3 - Demand decreased by 22% on a year-over-year basis, while SUPPLY ALSO INCREASED by 13%!Every metric a STR owner should be tracking is impacted (significantly).

I still (strongly) believe that supply will pick up in the spring once STR owners are disappointed with 2021 holiday figures, deteriorating property values on the mountain. If you have any questions around how we strategically marketed our cabin to fetch top dollar, please feel free to reach out. We also listed another one of our friends' cabin for sale and are currently in escrow for $707.5K (list price was $689K and Zestimate was $620K!!)