Airbnb's downturn and the ripple effects

Airbnb's downturn and the ripple effects

Rental Property Investor · Red Bank, NJ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

An interesting article in the WSJ on the disaster that is befalling Airbnb hosts, both owners and sub-leasee's. It also touches on the potential effects on the people they employ and general housing market. 

Specifically as to us- Over-extended hosts are either rushing to sell or putting their properties into the long term rental market. Your thoughts? I don't see this depressing my market as there are not many Airbnb's, but it sounds like Nashville, Atlanta and some parts of Florida may see a softening.

Some quotes:

For years, Cheryl Dopp considered the ding on her phone from a new Airbnb Inc. booking to be the sound of what she called “magical money.” A property she rented out in Jersey City, N.J., on Airbnb could gross more than $8,000 a month, she said, double what long-term tenants would pay.

Now, Ms. Dopp associates the dings with cancellations and financial misery. The 54-year-old information-technology contractor said she had about $10,000 in bookings evaporate overnight in March. She has $22,000 in monthly expenses for a largely Airbnb portfolio, she said, that included another Jersey City home and a house in Miami.

In her mind, the promise of more rental income offset the growing debt, she said. “I made a bargain with the devil.”

...

The sharing economy has proven particularly unstable in the pandemic. Silicon Valley championed the concept of turning America into a land of entrepreneurs taking advantage of flexible hours, unimpeded by regulations or specialized training. People who bought into the idea turned their cars into work stations for Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. or became couriers for food-delivery services like DoorDash Inc.

They have taken a hit, but with Airbnb, the problems are broader. Hosts brought with them cleaning services, interior designers and property-maintenance workers who helped build miniature property empires—so their plight has ripple effects that go far beyond their own listings.

Airbnb hosts saw $1.5 billion in bookings vanish in mid-March as the travel industry froze, according to market-research firm AirDNA LLC, which analyzes bookings. Airbnb gave guests full refunds and forced hosts to dip into their pockets or beg for leniency on April loans and rent.

...

“Hosts should’ve always been prepared for this income to go away,” said Gina Marotta, a principal at Argentia Group Inc., which does credit-risk analysis for real-estate loans. “Instead, they built an expensive lifestyle feeding off of it.”

...

Smaller players have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars each buying homes for short-term rentals. Jennifer Kelleher-Hazlett of Clawson, Mich., spent about $380,000 to buy two Michigan properties in 2018. She said she and her husband cashed out their financial investments and borrowed $100,000 from employers to furnish them.

The 47-year-old expected to net up to $7,000 a month from Airbnb after mortgage payments, supplementing her income as a part-time pharmacist and her husband’s as a schoolteacher. Before the virus struck, the couple was considering buying more homes. Now, they can’t make mortgage payments because no one is booking, she said. “We’re either borrowing more or defaulting.”

Airbnb let hosts set their own refund policies over canceled stays. Hosts with strict policies would receive half the money on canceled stays. Many factored a steady stream of income when planning for the future.

Airbnb’s Mr. Papas said the majority of active listings didn’t have strict cancellation policies.

Hosts’ sense of control disappeared as the crisis took hold and the company stepped in to ameliorate travelers’ panicked cancellations. Airbnb granted guests full refunds for stays between March 14 and May 31, wrenching the finances of those who had used Airbnb income to underwrite and sustain their mini-empires.

...

That sum would provide little relief to hosts such as Jennifer and David Landrum of Atlanta. In 2016, they started a company named Local, renting the 18 apartments they leased and 21 apartments they managed to corporate travelers and film-industry workers. They spent more than $14,000 per apartment to outfit them with rugs, throw pillows, art and chandeliers. They grossed about $1.5 million annually, mostly through Airbnb, Ms. Landrum said.

They spend about $50,000 annually with cleaning services, about $25,000 on an inspector and $30,000 a year on maintenance staff and landscapers, Ms. Landrum said, not to mention spending on furnishings.

When Airbnb began refunding guests March 14, the Landrums had nearly $40,000 in cancellations, she said. The couple has been able to pay only a portion of April rent on the 18 apartments they lease and can’t fulfill their obligations to pay three months’ rent unless bookings resume. They have reduced pay to cleaning staff and others. Adding to the stress, Georgia banned short-term rentals through April.

“It’s scary,” said Ms. Landrum, who said she has discounted some units three times since mid-March. The Landrums have negotiated to get some leniency from apartment owners on their leases. If not, Ms. Landrum said, they would have to sell their house.

Florida, Pennsylvania, Vermont and Delaware also have clamped down on short-term rentals, instituting temporary bans on Airbnb properties and similar listings. Local governments including California’s Sonoma County and Myrtle Beach, S.C., have enacted similar restrictions. The measures have made it harder for some Airbnb hosts to fill properties with families looking to quarantine outside their homes or near relatives.

...

As short-term-listings bans were passed around the country, Airbnb said it was shifting to focus on long-term stays and encouraged hosts to allow them. Some hosts under pressure to generate income have pursued traditional 12-month leases on Zillow, Craigslist and other sites.

In Nashville, Tenn., which grants permits to hosts, about a dozen of the city’s 3,600 nonowner-occupied listings—which include Airbnb properties—surfaced in the first days of April as advertisements for one-year leases on Zillow or Craigslist, according to Host Compliance LLC, a software provider tracking permits for the city. City leaders said they feared more would follow.

...

Ms. Dopp, the IT contractor, bought two Jersey City properties in 2015 each with multiple apartments. She listed one apartment for $140 a night and generated $4,200 from it that month, she said. She also bought a Miami house that she listed on Airbnb and other short-term rental sites under a pseudonym and used the anticipated revenue from the properties to support a six-figure loan for maintenance, she said.

When states began locking down, Ms. Dopp said, “I thought, ‘Holy God. We’re about to lose everything.’ ”

Though some of her properties had long-term tenants, she lost most Airbnb bookings through spring, she said, and can’t cover April’s mortgages, property taxes and insurance. A family rented her Miami home at a discounted rate on Airbnb, she said, providing some relief. She also plans to apply for a small-business loan, seek forbearance from banks, find long-term tenants independently of Airbnb and sell one property.

She has begun shutting down her Airbnb account, she said. “I don’t want to bargain with the devil any more.”

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Investor · Youngstown, OH · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y

I don't normally like to play the blame game. It's like asking why someone didn't have a rocketship ready for an alien invasion. But when you say your property is bringing in DOUBLE the amount of an LTR, you should have more than enough in reserves to get through 3 months without bookings, especially in a field where local governments can ban your business overnight.

Southern states, where I expect most STR's exist, are the first ones pushing down the gates trying to reopen (if they even shut down in the first place). Ohio has been in the lead regarding restrictions and shut downs, and we're ready to throw the doors open in about 2 weeks. I think there's still potential for summer bookings.

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  • Investor · Youngstown, OH · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    I don't normally like to play the blame game. It's like asking why someone didn't have a rocketship ready for an alien invasion. But when you say your property is bringing in DOUBLE the amount of an LTR, you should have more than enough in reserves to get through 3 months without bookings, especially in a field where local governments can ban your business overnight.

    Southern states, where I expect most STR's exist, are the first ones pushing down the gates trying to reopen (if they even shut down in the first place). Ohio has been in the lead regarding restrictions and shut downs, and we're ready to throw the doors open in about 2 weeks. I think there's still potential for summer bookings.

  • Rental Property Investor · Red Bank, NJ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Nicole Heasley Beitenman I think those that can are going to road trip the hell away from their homes. And since the supplemental unemployment is good 'til 7/31- there may be quiet a few who can.

    I agree about the reserves. All I have ever heard is how much more lucrative STR's are, is it just the inexperience/unpreparedness/unprofessionalism of these hosts?

  • Real Estate Broker · Miami, FL · Member since 2018 · 236 posts · 99 votes
    6y

    I ran and operated numerous short term rental properties successfully between 2007-2015 wayyy before Airbnb became so popular and everyone in every corner decided to do this as a form of extra income. I don't blame them but I also knew the income was just icing on the cake and you can't ever rely on icing on the cake as a form of stability. The money was fantastic but the stress level and demand was not and the city started getting wiser. I got out at the right time and focused more on long term rentals. I'm so glad I did. I feel for all the people with empty units right about now!

  • Investor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 731 votes
    6y

    Completely agree with @Nicole Heasley Beitenman.  Unless you just started, the high returns should have been used to meet your reserves.

    Unfortunately I converted 2 of my rentals to AirBNB in January.  Bought $14k in furniture and repairs to get them ready.  Was hoping to break even by end of our Spring season.  Luckily, I was able to convert them back to long term rentals and even sell/rent some of the furniture to the new tenants.

    My lessons learned and/or confirmed:

    • Always have an exit strategy.  If not, 2-3.
    • Always underwrite conservatively and include vacancy
    • Never force a deal

    I took my existing rentals that were already good long-term rentals.  This helped me minimize exposure.  We signed them to a 2-year and 6-month lease.  We will try again on our townhouse in 6-months.  However, I know a lot of people doing AirBNB Arbitrage that might be hurting right now.  Or, investors who bought overpriced because the returns were so good.

  • Avery CarlBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · USA · Member since 2016 · 909 posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    COVID is a great example (and unfortunately hard lesson for some) on the importance of cash reserves. Even if you start with just a few bucks in your reserve account, if you have bought properly in a good STR market, you should be able to save a good amount in cash reserves within your first few months of your STR being open.

    We haven't seen much of a softening in prices in my markets yet. I think the shutdowns will need to go on for a few more months before they put a real dent in prices, and most restaurants/attractions in all of my markets are set to open as early as next week, and in the coming weeks.

    I have had a few clients come to me to panic sell, but we aren't at a point yet where sellers are willing to accept panic sale prices.

  • Alan McClainPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Columbus, OH · Member since 2019 · 32 posts · 12 votes
    6y

    @Patrick M.

    While STRs typically provide more revenue than long term rentals, it comes with greater risk. One of those risks which many hosts should have taken into consideration is higher vacancy. Hosts are experiencing that now with the current pandemic. Having reserves in place for large repairs and vacancy is a way investors can mitigate risk. This should hold them over for a few months to get through this event or create a new plan such as longer term leases.

    Similar to the financial crisis in 2008, many banks and investors found themselves over leveraged. This resulted in consolidation and increased reserves. I believe this will happen in the STR market. While it is painful to go through, it will help create a more stable market.

    Personally, I operate both long term rentals and was in the process of opening a STR. However, I have been unable to open the STR due to permitting. I have used both of the risk mitigation strategies mentioned above to whether the storm. When performing due diligence, I stress test the deal with various vacancy rates. My short term rental will remain profitable even with 50% vacancy and will be able to break even converting it to a long term rental. While the situation is not ideal, I will be able to get through most downturns and hopefully buy properties on the cheap from those over leveraged investors.

  • Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    6y

    I read that same article when it was published and also thought it was quite interesting.  I don't fault any of the AirBNB operators, any more than any of the other entrepreneurs/business owners suffering right now, because nobody could have seen this pandemic coming.  It sounded like some of the people in that story had a really good thing going, right up until they didn't.  

    It's unfortunate because there seems to be several things working against them right now:

    - Some people are afraid to travel 

    - Government restrictions/lockdowns have either prevented travel and/or temporarily prohibited STR like AirBNB altogether

    - AirBNB unilaterally overrode hosts' strict refund policies and allowed guests to cancel and get all their money back, which in some cases further unfairly impacted the hosts financially

    As I read that article, and how the people featured in it were faced with less than desirable options (i.e. defaulting, selling, etc), I wondered how many people on BP had encountered similar decisions and decided instead to convert their AirBNB units to long-term rentals and if that was even a viable option for many of these types of properties?  I realize they wouldn't be as profitable, but if it allowed you to stop the bleeding, make a little bit of profit, and hold onto the property, perhaps it could still work?

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