So what happens without the boomers

[Joe M.]

I stumbled across the following article thanks to @brycerobertson  I wonder how a post-boomer housing market looks.  Your thoughts?

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-silver-tsunami-and-the-coming-boom-of-available-homes-300964339.html

Headlines include:

Baby Boomers are set to leave their homes at record levels in the coming years, freeing inventory in what has been an increasingly tight market since the economic recovery began

- Housing released by aging Boomers will provide a substantial and sustained boost to supply, comparable to new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.

- Within two decades, more than a quarter of currently owner-occupied homes will become available.

- In some traditional retirement communities, including in Arizona and Florida, that number could reach nearly two-thirds.

[Doug McVinua]

@Joe M. So for a little Sunday Funday I took a quick snapshot of the Phoenix/Mesa, AZ market stats for the last year in the Adult sector. This was a quick look so don't be overly critical as I took a nominal effort to clean up the data.

What I found in the Adult Phoenix Metro area for the last 12 months: 8988 Sales, 666 currently Under Contract, and 1494 Active for Sale. So we are selling on average 749 per month and the data would also indicate a 2 month supply of inventory. We just concluded high season and are headed into the slower market for Adult housing as it's a little more seasonal. July and August are not the best months to golf or hike in Phoenix. lol

Of course, this doesn't address the concerns in the article and is not a projection of what happens in 10-20 or 30 years.

Having been an agent/broker in the Phoenix market for over 20 years I do see a trend towards the newer developments that offer far more than golf. I do see an oversupply of golf courses and expect to see some of them repurposed in the future.

As for Property Management in the Adult space, the only issue I have is not enough inventory to meet the rental demand. Zero vacancies are good!!!!!!