Strategic Guidance Help in year of Covid - +2 Properties -1 Job

[Lyle Burlingame]

Greetings, 

This is my first post on bigger pockets, after being a listener since August, I now need guidance from this community more than ever.  I will try to be as clear and concise as possible in explaining my situation and perceived options, as well as my personal knowledge about SARS-COV2 and how it may impact our society and real estate markets.

Current Status:

 I left San Francisco in early March the night before shelter in place was announced, to ride out the virus back in Minnesota with my family, I also have two properties here in MN  (a single family home and a 4 plex** Info below).  About a week before I left I was also placed on unpaid leave from my job in which I had been highly compensated.  I am not sure the company I've served the last 3 years will have work for me in the future, so as of right now I have no income expect for my rentals, I have applied for unemployment and I am looking for remote work and healthcare IT related jobs, also considering some of these disaster relief loans.

I am looking for someone to take over my master bedroom in the Predisio of SF (heartbreaker) so I can be relieved of a $2000 a month rent bill for the time being, with the goal of going back to SF when the virus cools off.  In addition to the rent bill I have other expenses that I am trying to minimize, car/health insurance, phone etc, but I am trying to minimize those so I can get by on my rental cash flow.  

Cash Reserves:  $20,000 - $30,000

Retirement Accounts: $50,000 (401k = 40k IRA=10k)

Property 1:  Singl Fam 4bdrm  Value:  $240,000  Principal Debt Balance:  $57,000

• Gross Rent:  $1600  
• Mortgage Payment:  $1400  Current Interest Rate: 3.5%  
• Effective Cash flow after expenses:  0-$100
• **  I have applied for a refi on this property which will drop my payment to $850 (adding $400 to cash flow) and I'll be able to cash out $15,000

Property 2: 4Plex    Value:  $265,000   Principal Debt Balance:  $177,000

• Gross Rent:  $2700 Mortgage payment:  $1400  Current Interest Rate:  %4.25
• Effective Cash Flow after expenses:  $600-900   *been having issues with property manager inflating expense. 

Thoughts on COVID19's impacts to market and economic outlook:

With COVID set to ravage our population for at least 6 months to a year, as the states go through their outbreaks on desperate timelines, with varying degrees of severity I see a couple things happening. 

1.  A lot of properties coming on the market, for various reasons, after prices went up for over 100 months consecutively, there may be many owners looking to cash out.. Also, as morbid as it sounds, realistically there will be a lot of estate sales and people young and old are having the very wind of life knocked out of them at an alarming rate across the country as the virus spreads. 

2.  Inflation.  There's no way around it, the fed is printing money at an alarming rate, and these forgivable loans are going to place a lot of money in peoples hands, not saying it's all bad, but its going to have negative consequences, especially if the money isn't distributed in an honest and responsible way. 

Primary questions: How might I/we best position ourselves to benefit most from this situation?

My Plan :

1.  Find a job - of course I will need to start earning again, hopefully over $100,000 per year as I have been for a good number of years to fund my next investment. 

2.  Complete the refi and gather capital for next purchase

3.  Purchase a house hack to live in (2-4 plex, so I can have 1 unit for myself/no roommates)

4.  Find equity partners for a large multi unit deal Perhaps 12-36 units, in which they put up the capital, and I project manage the deal, GC the remodels unit by unit, manage all vendors, property managers etc. for my share of the equity. 

5.  Should I apply for the PPP (I am self employed in my consulting business as a 1099 sole proprietor)   or the other disaster relief loans?  They are advertised as forgivable, and my consulting business took a huge hit leaving me without income. 

6.  How can I best set myself up to make a couple good deals in this window before we see the inflation?  I heard the Chinese real estate markets started going up again recently, perhaps they are 6 months ahead of us, who knows, but I feel like once all this money starts floating around, we will see the inflation and property prices going up fast once that window closes. 

Right now all my tenants are still paying rent but this could change.  My properties are in the Midwest, on the MN/ND boarder community of Fargo-Moorhead.  When COVID gets worse here, I could see some of my tenants unable to pay.  

Thanks so much for any feedback on my situation, God Bless you and your families with His wisdom and protection during these uncertain times. 

-Lyle