Sell for its appreciation and do 1031 for cashflow - OR KEEP??

[Takahito Torimoto]

I have an existing rental property that I was/am very close to wanting to sell this summer, do a 1031 Exchange, and get 3-4 other rentals that will have significantly more cash flow.

I understand that there's a range of thought - more cash flow vs more (hold for) appreciation.

With that said, I also know that usually (almost always?) the chance of long-term return is much higher with the appreciation method (assuming the property is in a nice location) - so I realize I am willing to hold it if that is the case with this property.

What I don't know is - how can I do an assessment or calculation (with assumptions of course) to compare whether one makes sense over the other?

I don't have a problem calculating properties for cash flow.  But to see whether the property is good for appreciation, what information is usually used to do any assessment or calculations - so I can compare and make a decision?

Any help (even personal opinions!) would be appreciated - my numbers for this property are here below:

• Market Value $320k; Zillow says the home value will stay the same for the next year though (it has tapered off in the last year)
• Remaining Principal: $110k
• 5BR, 3BA + Basement, 2500 sq ft
• Current Rent: $1950/mo
• Expenses: $1900/mo (5% vacancy rate, estimated expenses, $500 HOA, $4800 in property taxes, $1800 in insurance, $900 P&I included)
• Located in Suwanee, GA:
• Great Schools Rating: 9 (High School), 8 (Middle School), 10 (Elementary School)
• Niche Grade A+; Public Schools A+, Jobs A, Crime/Safety B, Cost of Living C+
• 24% Rent, 76% Own
• #2 Best Public Schools in Georgia
• #5 Best Place to Raise a Family in Georgia

[Takahito Torimoto]

I don't mind the pressure of a 1031 - because I'm thinking I can just find 3-4 "average" (not amazing) deal properties with cash flow, and even that would be significantly better than the not-much-cash-flow state it is in now.

But the question is still - does it seem like a property that I should hold onto for the appreciation based on the data?  My thought is with it not cash flowing much, I'm putting too much risk in the appreciation side of the balance.  (I know that's a personal preference, and so maybe I am answering myself here).