BRRRR Property Analysis Help (In a somewhat bad college area)

[Markus Brannon]

Hello All,

I'm looking to be a new long-distance investor within the next month, and my first deal is going to be entirely no money down without a mortgage. This first property, after refinancing, is looking to get me around 50-80k in start up capital that's going to allow me to really go hard in the market I'm currently looking into.

With that in mind, here are the numbers for the property I'm interested in, as well as some other information regarding the area:

House Stats: 2000 Sq Ft. 4 Bed, 2 Bath.
Local House Prices: Around 100k, but the road/area its on is kinda meh.
Asking Price: 55k
I'm Going to Offer: 40-45k
Refurb/Repair: I would like to put in no more than 30-40k, which looking at the pictures seems reasonable. I would also like to make into a duplex, with 2 Bed 1 Bath and a separate meter for each side.
After Repair Value: 100-120k. The prices in the area are rising in general, and refurbing a slumy house raises it value way more than usual calculations. (Example: House I'm getting in my first deal was bought at 70k, 3 years ago in decent condition but needed lots of cosmetics. Around 15k was put into it. It's now worth around 130k with 2000 Sq. Ft.)

The average rent in the area is 800$/month for a 2-1, so I can realistically see 1600$/month gross income.

Being slightly conservative and using the 50% rule, it means that I'm looking to be able to pay around 800$/month for hard money (If I can find a lender in the area) on 60-80k, and refinance comfortably into a 15 year, 5% mortgage (Around 500$/month payment.) Or 30 year, 5% (around 250$/month).

Question 1: Is a deal this good is worth putting money in a mostly okay, slightly bad, area.

Question 2: Should even consider it if I don't have a good PM I trust yet.

Question 3: Should I use my money from refinancing my other property or look into getting another short term loan, and use my start up capital in other properties I'm looking at in the area.

Question 4: I'm "Assuming" 30-40k in refurb/repair, but I'm also not convinced that is going to be enough. If I take into account up to 60k repairs, and the fact that even though property in the area gets lots of value from a simple facelift, is it fair to assume 120k after repair value even if the general area is kinda meh?

Thanks for all the future help.

V/R
Markus Brannon