Calculation question... first timer

[Christina Tkacs]

I'm running some calculations on a duplex that I'm looking at, and things don't seem to be adding up.  This is my first real estate venture, so I want to pose the question to the community for advice.

The duplex is in SE Tacoma area and listed at $245,000.  We'll put $45,000 down so the loan is at $200,000.  Currently, total rental income is $1900.

Property taxes - $250/mo
Insurance - Guessed to be $200/mo (I have no idea on this one!)
Vacancy (10% of rental income) - $100/mo
Repairs (10% of rental income - $100/mo
CapEx (10% of rental income, duplex was built in 1968) - $100/mo
Utilities - I believe tenant pays all but I'm not sure... for duplexes here, owner usually pays for something.

That's $800/mo in expenditures.

A 15 year mortgage at 5% is $1581/mo.  Add in the expenditures = $2381/mo in expenses.

Subtract rent and that means cash flow is NEGATIVE $481/mo.

My question is... $245,000 is a reasonable price for the area.  $1000/mo in rent for each side is also very reasonable for the area.  Many great deals are taken before they even hit the market... I understand that... but how can such a reasonable duplex potentially put us nearly negative $500/mo?

I just feel like I'm missing something, or calculating something wrong.  The duplex currently has two offers beyond asking price, so I know I MUST be calculating something wrong.

Thanks  :)