Plumbing Leak in Duplex

[Art Maydan]

My duplex has water leaking through the downstairs bathroom ceiling (link). Upstairs, the toilet is directly above this. I had a contractor come before. He lifted up the upstairs toilet and there was water around the pipe. He replaced the wax seal and caulked the empty space around it.

http://tinypic.com/r/2zdyhjm/9

http://tinypic.com/r/23rmja9/9

The issue didn't go away and I had another contractor come. He confirmed it's the toilet and said it's possible the first contractor did a bad job and if he re-seals the toilet, that will be enough. He says that might not be the source though and we have to open the wall to see what the issue is.

Judging by the pictures, is anyone here able to get an idea of what's going on? Do you think I need to open the wall? This guy said he'd open the wall and do an inspection for $200. That's not counting actually repairing it and he said I'd need to hire someone else to repair the drywall once the water issue is fixed. Does that sound right or should I be able to find someone who can quote me more precisely and do the entire job, drywall included?