Help with Newbie Rental Calculations

[Jordan Hamm]

Wondered if I could get some more experience REI eyes to look over my numbers. Something doesn't seem right—am I really not going to make any money?

I'm looking to convert my current home (7 yrs old) into a rental.

Current PITI: $983 ($11,796/yr)

Estimated Rent: $1900 ($22,800/yr)

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Principal: $254 ($3048/yr)

Interest: $350 ($4190/yr)

Real Estate Taxes: $276 ($3315/yr)

Management Fees: $2769/yr (listing fee = first months rent, $79/mo after)

HOA: $60 ($720/yr)

Insurance: $75 ($900/yr estimated 20% higher than current rate)

Vacancy: $2280/yr (10% gross income)

Maintenance: $2280/yr (10% gross income)

Income Tax: $3024/yr (gross income - PITI x 25%)

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So my rough estimates have $22,800 in gross income to $22,605 total expenses. If I assume my property management company has another renter lined up I may be able to reduce vacancy costs... but other than that, it doesn't seem like there's much wiggle room.

Is this a bad idea? Everyone I've told that my total payment is under $1k and could rent for $1900 has said I'd be stupid not to rent it out. But it doesn't seem like the numbers add up? Am I missing something? Or am I being overly cautious on a 7 yr old, turn-key property?

Thanks for your help!