How long will vacancy rates stay this low?

Question

What do fellow Massachusetts investors think? Boston area vacancies are hovering around 4.4% on average from what I read in this article compared to 8% plus in 2008.

How long can we continue to rake in the cash? I'm thinking we have another 2-3 years before the market corrects itself and builders are able to increase supply.

Article from Boston globe

Marcus Johnson · Answer

Yes, as long as kids keep borrowing tons of money to go to college and choosing not to attend places they can afford, then us Landlords should have more applicants.

Rob L. · Answer

Yeah exactly @George P.

We've been filling vacancies in about a week or two max. And when we do were getting rental increases too.

I assume its because of the great depression, for 3-5 years we had little to no new construction with increased demand. I just wonder on macro level if were see people stay renting longer due to student loan debt being over a trillion dollars and lending practices stricter.

George P. · Answer

this market is super hot. so the post i made above was about a house that was on the market for under a week and had 40 private showings and 3 hrs of non stop traffic during the open house. that was our best house by far.

i just had a turnover and i changed the tub, put ceramic tiles, new shower assembly, dual paint, sanded hardwood in kitchen floors. Listed this house for $75 more than we were getting until now and we rented it on the day of the open house. had multiple applications.

both were with an agent on the MLS. i am loving this.

Elizabeth Colegrove · Answer

In Central Valley California the prices are crazy. The thing is I do not think they will be going down again. At least not to today's levels. The key is to know what they were at the highest. Out here the market feel over 60% ($256 til 105). So even though they are at $145k, that is nothing compared to what they were at the market peak.

I think it is important to know your market and where it is going. It is also important to not be "cheap". If you want to get a house you need to be reasonable about today's market. I lost some GREAT houses until I was ready to stop being cheap. I still regret to of the houses I lost. Don't let my mistake be yours!

Georges A. · Answer

Although I agree with the above, that vacancy rates aren't going to be affected dramatically, I do think they will get affected to some extent with all these residential buildings opening all over Boston. Yet the demand is still way higher than the demand.

On another note, what do you guys think about the inflating prices. I have been trying to buy a house for the last 6 months and keep getting outbid. I am seriously thinking about taking a step back and wait out this cycle. It seems to me that we're heading out to the peak of the cycle where all the sellers are disposing of their properties at very high prices (well above asking mostly). What are your thoughts? One part of me does not want to lose out on the historically low APRs but another part of me thinks I am about to buy properties that are somehow inflated. I am talking about areas like Medford, Somerville, Cambridge, etc not areas like Dorchester or Roxbury that still have a lot of potential

Rob L. · Answer

@Mike Hurney I'm with you, I like to copy the best places that I see on Craiglist and make sure I'm offering the same product and then I undercut the rent by 50 to 100 dollars a month. Its seriously helped in keeping units occupied and enables us to pick the best tenants.

As for the meeting that sounds like it should be good. I work in Wellesley but I think I will stop by on my way home from work.

Mike Hurney · Answer

@Rob L. Yes, I'm upgrading all my apartments and increasing most rents. I believe it's important to add value when increasing.

Tomorrow evening our theme is "Curb Appeal" (for Selling, Refinancing, Increasing Rent) and we've got several experts, covering Massachusetts, for Staging and Landscaping to teach how and where to do it! Link in signature below.

Shaun Reilly · Answer

Locally as long as people want to live here, we have all those colleges where kids want/need to live off campus for some amount of time, and there are jobs there is no reason to think there will be any major downfall.

Things happen in cycles and there was some moving out and some living with families when the economy tanked, but it wasn't really that bad here.  Rents stagnated for a few years but that was the biggest effect.  I doubt that the run up in prices will go on at the same pace for too much longer, but that is just because it has been going up pretty substantially the last few years.

Steve Nowak · Answer

I am not sure...so many people in their twenties are saddled with student debt and can't get mortgages.  I don't see that changing anytime soon.

George P. · Answer

this spring has been crazy with tenants looking.  Never seen this before.  Usually we needed almost 2 months to find a good tenant.  We had an open house yesterday and had 2 apps. During last week we got 3 more before the open house.

How long will vacancy rates stay this low?

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