Refinancing a 30yr owner occupied 6.8% to a lower 30yr vs 15yr - Thoughts?

[Ralph Noyes]

Checking in with the BP public on this...wife and I just bought and moved into a SF this May at 6.812% and the monthly payment (4319 all in) is pretty painful. Put 10% down on a 650k sale price. PMI is surprisingly cheap - $71.

What do yall think the trajectory of mortgage rates will be in the next 1-2 years? Generally down, likely, but do you have an idea of where the sweet spot to refinance would be? What are your thoughts on a 15 vs 30 yr term? 

Any chance of a rate modification vs a full on refinance which I'm sure will cost 10-20k? If it must be a full on refinance, are there any tips/tricks on getting the cost down other than getting lots of quotes? Anything else relevant you'd add?

For some context, the current payment is 30-31% of our gross income, we both have 780+ credit scores, no other debt besides this mortgage. Payment is manageable but definitely eating into the amount we can save and invest.