Sell at a Loss or Wait? Looking for Advice on Underperforming TX House

[Yulya Marucya]

Hey everyone — I’d love your input on what’s honestly been a frustrating situation.

I bought a home in Austin, TX (Pflugerville to be exact) back in 2021 as an Airbnb investment for $420K and put in about $100K into it (5% down payment + lots of repairs). 

Fast forward to today: home value is $400K or less, it's cash-negative at -6K/year as Airbnb or -12K/year as long-term rental and I’m facing a tough decision: sell at a loss, or wait and keep eating negative cash flow and hope the house will appreciate to at least 470K in 5 years.

What would you do in my position?

Here’s the breakdown:

📉 Current Monthly Expenses: 2.9K

• Mortgage (P&I): $1,675.13
• Insurance: $269.42
• PMI: $121.00
• Property Taxes: $602
• Utilities (avg): $650
• Gardner: $100
• Pond Mainteinance: $140 (I have two Koi ponds on the property)

Total Monthly Expenses: $2,9K w/o utils or ~$3,7 with utils, not even factoring in fixes or capex. 

I also have a hot tub that costs $185/m to service.

💡 What I’ve Tried:

• Airbnb: Net loss of about $6K to 8K/year (after cleaning, taxes, etc.) and a lot of hassle
• Mid-term rental: Listed furnished at $3,200/month on Zillow — no serious interest yet, no competition either which means there isn't much demand for mid-term furnished rentals in Pflugerville
• Long-term rental: Rents are 2.2K. So it would actually perform worse than Airbnb (close to -12K/year) unless I bring in an investor to lower the monthly mortgage cost which is unlikely.
• House-hacking: based on my calculations for 3BR 2 BA house it would still be -5K/year.

🧠 My Dilemma:

• My mortgage balance is 370K. Selling now at 400K would mean losing a ~$100K initial investment, AND paying 8-15K out of pocket now to cover fees, plus losing my 3.5% mortgage (big asset in today’s 7% market).
• If I wait let’s say 5 years, I’d need it to appreciate from 400K to at least 470K to just break even with factoring in negative cash flow. And I’d still not recoup the 100K I invested into renovations. For that to happen the house needs to be closer to 600K. How likely is that?
• And if we go into a recession and Airbnb stops working, I’d be stuck with -12K property per year... waiting until it appreciates. 

🔍 What I’m Looking For:

• What would you do in my position?
• Am I missing a more creative option?
• Would selling and taking the hit now be smarter than waiting and losing $6–12K/year in hopes of recouping it later?

Appreciate any thoughts or experiences you’re willing to share 🙏

[Andrew W.]

I would give MTR another try since you already have it setup and furnished. 

My friend Vivian in based here in Austin and has free training materials for getting the best MTR bookings https://vivianyip.com/. She also manages MTRs for investors.