Why Aren’t We Seeing Mortgage Rate Relief Yet?

[Michael Calvey]

If you’ve been watching the markets and wondering why mortgage rates remain stubbornly high—despite whispers of economic softening—you’re not alone. It’s mid-April and many expected mortgage rate relief by now. After all, inflation has cooled, and there’s been talk of eventual interest rate cuts.

And yet here we are. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate continues to hover near 6.5% to 7%, remaining well above where many anticipated it would be by spring. It’s tempting to point to President Trump’s tariffs as the primary driver, but is that really the full story?

Even before yesterday’s Treasury sell-off, upward pressure on 10-year yields was already building. The events of April 9 simply accelerated a trend that was already underway.

It turns out that part of the answer may lie in the intricate—and risky—world of hedge fund trading, specifically a strategy known as the basis trade. While this might sound like something pulled from an episode of Billions, it has very real consequences for real estate investors like you.

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