Return on Investment from Paying Off Mortgage Early

Return on Investment from Paying Off Mortgage Early

Real Estate Agent · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2010 · 350 posts · 222 votes

Perhaps someone can help clarify my thinking on a financial question.

For this discussion let's assume we're talking about a $100,000 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 5% with a payment of $536.82 per month.

Not that you would do this, but... if, the day after you got your mortgage, you went into the bank and the paid $100,000 back you'd be getting essentially $536.82 per month more in cash flow for the next 30 years on a $100,000 investment. That means you'd be getting 6.44% return on your $100,000 for the next 30 years.

$536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

$6,441.86/$100,000 = 6.44%

First, is that right?

Of course, you would not longer be leveraged, so your returns from appreciation and depreciation would go way down. And, your return from debt paydown goes to zero. I do understand that.

Second, and here's the next question. Imagine I did NOT pay it off, but paid on the loan for 10 years (120 months). At that point, the balance would be $81,342.06.

If I went to the bank with $81,342.06 at that time and paid off the loan, I would, again, save myself the $536.82 per month payment for the next 20 years. And, my return on the $81K and change would be 7.92% per year.

$536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

$6,441.86/$81,342.06 = 7.92%

Is that right?

And, finally, if I did not pay it off early and we jump to year 20, I would owe $50,612.27. If I walk into the bank with that and pay it off, I save the monthly payment again for the next 10 years.

$536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

$6,441.86/$50,612.27 = 12.73% for 10 years.

What am I missing? Thanks in advance.

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Chris MasonPro Member
Moderator
Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
8y

Go spend another 5 hours with your spreadsheets, you will know you are done when you conclude that the marginal ROI (before tax implications or opportunity cost) exactly equals your interest rate. This will remain true if you pay it off in month 1, or month 359.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Rental Property Investor · Lanai City, HI · Member since 2018 · 64 posts · 70 votes
    8y

    @James Orr What are your real estate goals? A lot of investors aren't trying to pay low interest debt off early (<6%). You'd be better off leveraging your money and you could setup all your future purchases on 15yr loans (lower interest) and still achieve a quicker payoff date/cash flow. If you're just looking to retire early and be financially independent NOW, not having any debt could help achieve a LEAN FIRE or normal FIRE lifestyle earlier than building a long term wealthy foundation. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2010 · 350 posts · 222 votes
    8y

    Thanks @Jared Skov. Yes, I agree that a lot of investors are not paying off low interest debt early.

    I could go buy another rental (or several) with the money instead but in my market I wouldn't be getting cash flow properties. We're lucky if we're break-even on cash flow with 20% down payment. With 15 year loans, it would be WAY negative.

    As you mentioned, this could be a way to remove some debt to achieve a lean or normal FIRE lifestyle over doing something longer term.

  • Investor · Des Moines, IA · Member since 2015 · 380 posts · 201 votes
    8y
    @James Orr You are mistaken as part of that payment is principal paydown. Re run your numbers only using the interest savings per month. If you have a 5% loan then you aren't saving more than 5% on your money.
  • Rental Property Investor · Lanai City, HI · Member since 2018 · 64 posts · 70 votes
    8y

    @James Orr Paying your debt off early gives you a lot of dead equity and a 'nice looking' net worth. At $6K/mo, it's going to take 10+ years to pay yourself back, assuming no capital expenditures in that time period (rare). I agree that good buys are pretty much gone in CO, so it's tough. Do you buy your cash flow via 35% down or more while interest rates are still good? Do you wait for the next cooling off period? It's a tough call, what are your real estate goals? (short term vs. long term) 

  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    8y

    Go spend another 5 hours with your spreadsheets, you will know you are done when you conclude that the marginal ROI (before tax implications or opportunity cost) exactly equals your interest rate. This will remain true if you pay it off in month 1, or month 359.

  • Pleasanton, CA · Member since 2015 · 246 posts · 115 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @James Orr:

    Perhaps someone can help clarify my thinking on a financial question.

    For this discussion let's assume we're talking about a $100,000 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 5% with a payment of $536.82 per month.

    Not that you would do this, but... if, the day after you got your mortgage, you went into the bank and the paid $100,000 back you'd be getting essentially $536.82 per month more in cash flow for the next 30 years on a $100,000 investment. That means you'd be getting 6.44% return on your $100,000 for the next 30 years.

    $536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

    $6,441.86/$100,000 = 6.44%

    First, is that right?

    Of course, you would not longer be leveraged, so your returns from appreciation and depreciation would go way down. And, your return from debt paydown goes to zero. I do understand that.

    Second, and here's the next question. Imagine I did NOT pay it off, but paid on the loan for 10 years (120 months). At that point, the balance would be $81,342.06.

    If I went to the bank with $81,342.06 at that time and paid off the loan, I would, again, save myself the $536.82 per month payment for the next 20 years. And, my return on the $81K and change would be 7.92% per year.

    $536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

    $6,441.86/$81,342.06 = 7.92%

    Is that right?

    And, finally, if I did not pay it off early and we jump to year 20, I would owe $50,612.27. If I walk into the bank with that and pay it off, I save the monthly payment again for the next 10 years.

    $536.82 * 12 = $6,441.86 per year

    $6,441.86/$50,612.27 = 12.73% for 10 years.

    What am I missing? Thanks in advance.

    Think it other way around.

    Let us say you lend someone 100k and they pay you 537$ a month. At the end of one year they dont owe you 100k but only $98,525. So you cannot include principal payoff amount in your simple rate of return calculation. 

    Lets flip this other way round, its same calculation. So lets say you give bank 100k, they will pay you 537$ a month but wont return 100k at end of year but only give you back $98,525. So all your year 10, 20 calcs are way off as if you keep this till maturity you get 0 principal back.

    Amortization Schedule
    Payment DatePrincipalInterestBalance
    10/03/18$120$417$99,880
    11/03/18$121$416$99,759
    12/03/18$121$416$99,638
    01/03/19$122$415$99,516
    02/03/19$122$415$99,394
    03/03/19$123$414$99,272
    04/03/19$123$414$99,148
    05/03/19$124$413$99,025
    06/03/19$124$413$98,900
    07/03/19$125$412$98,776
    08/03/19$125$412$98,650
    09/03/19$126$411$98,525
  • Real Estate Professional · West Palm Beach, FL · Member since 2012 · 23k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    8y

    When you pay off Any loan, your return is Exactly whatever your interest rate....no matter when you pay it off.....you can create numbers that may look like it is different, but it never is.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y

    its just like not carrying a balance on an 18% credit card.. when you pay it off you save 18%  not greater than.

  • Cranford, NJ · Member since 2017 · 7 posts · 10 votes
    8y

    It’s also important to not overlook the opportunity cost of early repayment. When you pull the money out of the bank to pay off the loan, all you’ve done is move your very liquid cash into less accessible equity. You no longer have control over your money. Rather than having $100k continuously compounding while you enjoy the tax benefits of your mortgage payment, you will have to start saving toward the next $100k for the next investment. And if you pay off the mortgage early and start saving the next $100k, will you remember to also save the gains that you would have made on that $100k over that same period. That’s the opportunity cost that most people cheat themselves out of. Everything is financed, whether it’s financed with a bank or financed with your future gains

  • Rick SteinPro Member
    Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2014 · 248 posts · 181 votes
    8y

    There is no need for me to echo what previous responders have said. But, for future deals, why not look for owner financing or private money. On buy and hold properties, the terms are more important that the purchase price. Last year I purchased a three family with $10K down and seller financing at 2%. I am paying considerable more that than the 30 year amortized amount, so I am retiring the loan in 12.5 years. I was able to raise the rents by $200/month thereby increasing the NOI and, by extension, the value. I have about a $600/month cash flow. I use private money extensively and try to avoid banks whenever possible. A previous writer said that good deals in CO are hard to find. With all due respect, you don't look for great deals, you create them. I invite you to visit my Youtube channel: RLS Properties, LLC where I explain some of the creative financing techniques I have learned and use.

    I wish you the best of luck!

  • Investor · Longmont, CO · Member since 2016 · 185 posts · 156 votes
    8y

    @James Orr

    I've wondered this myself in the past, and I've come to the conclusion that early pay off of properties comes down to two major factors. 

    1. Personal Goals

    2. Risk Threshold

    The way I came to my own answer was to pose the following question: if I won 600 million dollars (or some other absurd amount) tomorrow, would I leverage that money so that I could grow it at a higher yield or would I allow that money to sit dead in asset just to play it safe? 

    For me the answer was leverage until initial mortgage is paid off then keep asset paid off or 1031 exchange into something better.  This is especially true when interest rates are low. Investing climate and conditions control everything. Tax savings 

  • Real Estate Agent · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2010 · 350 posts · 222 votes
    8y

    Thanks to all who replied. I did run two scenarios to compare paying off the mortgage versus investing the same money at the interest rate of the mortgage and those that suggested you are getting the same interest rate as your mortgage will be happy to know the end results (Net Worth) are identical.

    Cash flow does change but you have money and return in your "other 5% investment" (whether that's another property or stocks or whatever).

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Rick Stein:

    There is no need for me to echo what previous responders have said. But, for future deals, why not look for owner financing or private money. On buy and hold properties, the terms are more important that the purchase price. Last year I purchased a three family with $10K down and seller financing at 2%. I am paying considerable more that than the 30 year amortized amount, so I am retiring the loan in 12.5 years. I was able to raise the rents by $200/month thereby increasing the NOI and, by extension, the value. I have about a $600/month cash flow. I use private money extensively and try to avoid banks whenever possible. A previous writer said that good deals in CO are hard to find. With all due respect, you don't look for great deals, you create them. I invite you to visit my Youtube channel: RLS Properties, LLC where I explain some of the creative financing techniques I have learned and use.

    I wish you the best of luck!

     Totally regional.... and the seller is now paying inputed tax penalties on that loan.. did you explain that to them. ?

    but I have sold a lot of properties with advantageous terms.. I sold one last week for 10% down and 0 interest.. 24 month note.

    buyer will own it free and clear in 24 months and that's how you make money in the hood.. free and clear..

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    its just like not carrying a balance on an 18% credit card.. when you pay it off you save 18%  not greater than.

     True, except the credit card didn't cost 4% to fund and 6 weeks of frustration to qualify for. LOL

    If one goes through the costs and pain of a (5%) mortgage, only to immediately turn around and pay it off, it is a negative return not even counting personal pain and frustration for another document, another explanation of this deposit or that withdrawal and oh by the way title needs your agent to...

    Paying down debt is never dumb.  I personally focus on higher rate, risk and hassle loans than a primary res mortgage. Then load up and punch em in the face!

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Steve Vaughan:
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    its just like not carrying a balance on an 18% credit card.. when you pay it off you save 18%  not greater than.

     True, except the credit card didn't cost 4% to fund and 6 weeks of frustration to qualify for. LOL

    If one goes through the costs and pain of a (5%) mortgage, only to immediately turn around and pay it off, it is a negative return not even counting personal pain and frustration for another document, another explanation of this deposit or that withdrawal and oh by the way title needs your agent to...

    Paying down debt is never dumb.  I personally focus on higher rate, risk and hassle loans than a primary res mortgage. Then load up and punch em in the face!

     well shoot they used to give out mortgages like credit cards.. no qual  and borrow more than your paying.. LOL.. how did that work out for the lenders.

  • Contractor · Member since 2018 · 1 post · 0 votes
    8y
    @James Orr If you paid for the rental and owned it free and clear you would be gaining gross income minus operating expenses (Capital expenses, maintence and repairs, insurance). If you were to use leverage with a % downpayment your monthly mortgage and interest payments would be reduced annually based on higher percents down payment. I like the idea of putting down acceptable % based on lender requirements, or better yet a balanced down payment that ensure some percent cash ROI per year. So monthly operating expenses, capital and M&R, insurance are all paid by tenant along with the morgage payment. The downpayment and montly income are balance so there is an acceptable cash return of 10->% each month. Basically this uses the leverage to the fullest to keep cash in your pocket and provide the owner with some extra cash monthly and the mortgage is slowly paid by the tenant over the loan term. I like this because your return on invested capital is high, you have saved cash to invest in another property. I believe the more more unitsnyou own the less risk you take on as far as vacancy, while you increase your equity overall for investment potential. Mitigating risk for you and the bank through building equity, appreciation, and increasing cash flow over a growing portfolio. I like leverage over paying cash if time is on your side so long as your dont get over leveraged.
  • Investor · Paso Robles, CA · Member since 2016 · 106 posts · 31 votes
    8y
    @James Orr Very interesting thoughts but doesn’t seem appealing. As soon as I get close to paying off my mortgages I am actually looking for another property to 1031. I want all the benifits (beny’s) Depreciation, tax leverage, amortization etc. Not to mention the ability to cash out refi. I think this was a fun idea to think about but don’t do it. Unless you want a set amount every month and expect no cap ex or maintenance or evictions. I think it’s good to look at all aspects of ideals though. Good job thinking outside the box.
  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    8y

    @James Orr as others mentioned, you didn't subtract principal from your original numbers, which is why your calculated rate of return was off. 

    You really don't need calculators or spreadsheets to figure this out. At a high level, essentially you are avoiding 5% interest. So you can conclude, you are essentially making 5%. 

    That doesn't take into account the compounding effect if you reinvest the gains. If I invested $100,000 today at 5%, I would have $105,000 one year from now. Then if I invested the $105,000 at 5%, that would turn into $110,250. If you average that gain over two years, it works out to 5.125% per year gain - that is due to the compounding effect. If I run the numbers out 30 years that $100,000 will turn into over $400K if you reinvest the interest. 

    You may wonder why you end up paying less in interest on a 30 year mortgage than you would make investing at the same rate. The reason is that your loan is continually decreasing in outstanding principal. So you only pay 5% interest on $100,000 the first month. Every month and year after that, the outstanding principal decreases. So you are paying 5% interest, but on less than $100,000. By comparison if you are saving money, you are getting 5% interest every year, but the principal is increasing every month/year.

    I hope that makes sense.

  • Member since 2018 · 11 posts · 10 votes
    8y

    Seems pretty simple: only justified reason to finance money is to earn a higher return on that borrowed money. If your situation, risk tolerance or imagination prevents a higher return, then pay down the debt.

  • Member since 2016 · 13k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    8y

    "If your situation, risk tolerance or imagination prevents a higher return, then pay down the debt."

    I believe the majority of investors that pay down a mortgage do so because they simply do not understand finances. It is beyond their ability to process beyond the fact  they are paying monthly on the interest owed. All the logic in the world will not get them beyond that reality.

    I believe the posts on this thread has eloquently explained the advantages of leverage over dead equity but will likely not change many minds bent on paying off income properties.

  • Chandler, AZ · Member since 2017 · 174 posts · 269 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Brian Wilson:

    @James Orr

    The way I came to my own answer was to pose the following question: if I won 600 million dollars (or some other absurd amount) tomorrow, would I leverage that money so that I could grow it at a higher yield or would I allow that money to sit dead in asset just to play it safe? 

    This reminds me of something I heard Kiyosaki say recently.  While he is a huge fan of leverage and using other people's money, he noted that once he became financially independent his goals switched from creating wealth to preserving wealth.  I suspect we all have our income/wealth amount that will flip that switch in us.

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