I've Seen That Movie Too--The '08 Meltdown Again?

[John Thedford]

I like watching a lot of youtube videos on real estate, the markets, etc. Some forecasters are claiming we will have a meltdown similar to '08. I do not agree. In '08 we did not have the same type of market. We had insanity ruling and liar loans were the norm. Not today. Yes, we have insane buyers, but many are paying cash. Those buyers, unless they have a life event such as death, divorce, illness, won't typically be forced to sell and therefore won't be selling for pennies on the dollar. Yes we have 3.5% loans today, but those loans are written with strict guidelines. Yes, some of those owners will default leading to foreclosure, but I suspect the majority will not fall into that category. In SW Florida, almost 50% of buyers are cash buyers. If the market drops, but it is their primary, no big deal unless that life event occurs. The market WILL correct, as it always does, but that won't happen until a few million new units are built. As long as there is a shortage, we will continue to have a strong market. When we get a correction, it will NOT be a meltdown of 30% or more. I don't see that happening today. If I am wrong, tell me why.