Buying now is way too early

[Matt Higgins]

Ok, so most properties have a price that makes sense. I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of a deal with strong cash flow day 1, but the writing is on the wall, and real estate prices will be falling

1. Twice as many properties are in delinquency.

The share of delinquent FHA loans grew to 8.57% in April from 4.82% in March. (Yahoo finance)

2. 36.5 million people have filed for unemployment in the last 8 weeks (Washington post)

3. The financing market has changed. 680-700 credit scores, 20% down vs 3.5%, and higher closing cost.

4. County governments are hurting financially so they will have to raise property taxes making housing less affordable

5. Way too much uncertainty in the market for buyers, sellers, builders, and banks.

Interest rates are low and inventory is tight, I get it, but the doubling of delinquent properties means we should be waiting 12 to 18 months right????

I’m not doctor Fauci, but I think we need to “flatten the curve” of properties in delinquency before we jump in.

[Lee Ripma]

@Matt Higgins

I think this is all true on a national level. However real estate is local so these national trends won't affect all RE markets in the same way. In the City of LA SFH prices are still just as high as they were pre-corona with low days on market but MF values have already taken a beating and I expect that slide in values to continue. You'll hear MF values are down 10% but you can get low balls accepted far lower than 10% off if the seller is motivated. So I agree with you that there is major economic fallout from all this and that RE values in some sectors in some places will come down in the coming 3-12 months.