choosing one market to buy deals (TX vs OK vs FL)

[Jason Malabute]

I am trying to narrow my markets from 3 to 1.

My choices are:

1. League City and Texas City, Texas. (Houston) 

2. Norman, Oklahoma City, OK (Oklahoma)

3. Winter Garden , FL (Orlando)

League City (25.5%) and Winter Garden (22.2%) has the best population growth. Norman (OKC) has a population growth of 10.7%. Job growth belongs to Winter Garden with .32% in last 12 months . League City and Texas City has Job growth of .23% . Norman has .21% job growth.  League City and Texas City has the strongest personal income growth with 4.53%. Norman has 3.71% income growth and Winter Garden has 3.81% personal income growth. 

One of the most important numbers to look at is net migration.  Over the last 10 years  Winter Garden has the strongest net migration  with 6.3%. League City and Texas City has net migration of 5.5%. Norman net migration is 5.1%     

Texas City (41%) and Norman (46.2%) has the largest renter population. The other 2 markets are in the 20%. USA  renter population averages in the 30 something percent.

League City and and Norman are the safest communities with B ratings. Winter Garden is a C- rating and Texas City is a C+.

League City and Norman has best schools (A rating). The other 2 markets has a B rating when it has to quality of school.

On paper,  the Houston markets and Winter Garden are the best options.

However, even though the numbers for Norman are not as strong the trends  are all positive numbers. And unlike League City, Texas City, and Winter Garden where people have to drive 20-30 min out for work.... Norman  has an economic anchor (Oklahoma University) located within the market. With that said Winter Garden is very close to Winter Garden.

Also proporties in Norman are cheaper than the other markets because it is not as saturated with investors.

Another thing that I am worried about is global warming and its affects on markets. As global warming gets worst will there be more flooding in Texas? Will there be more Hurricanes in Florida? When we move away from natural oil completely what will happen to Texas economy (especially Texas City)?

I want to narrow my markets down to one market by this week so I can practice evaluating deals in that market.

How can I narrow my market search to one market? Please help.

[Jacob Ayers]

HI @Jason Malabute, looks like you've done some legitimate homework. Demographics, supply/demand, job growth, population growth are all important. 

I would consider property taxes in your assessment as well. Oklahoma has much lower property taxes than Texas, and I'm assuming Florida too. 

If we're talking natural disasters, don't forget about those Oklahoma tornadoes. There's a whole separate insurance for tornadoes, called Wind and Hail coverage. 

If you have any specific questions about Houston or OKC, drop me a note. I live in Houston, from Oklahoma and invest in OKC/Norman areas.