Historical cash flow analysis

[Rich Cavanagh]

I'm a pretty conservative long term buy and hold rental investor focused on cash flow. My thought process thus far has been to buy safe and smart so a good looking property I buy now isn't easily put into the red once the market turns and rent drops.

For example, I aim for $150+ cash flow / month (SF currently). I generally use zillow to see the 10+ year rent historical so I can have a reference for the worst case scenario. With one property it's a range from $650 (in 2013) to ~$900 (current). That can mean either great CF or leave me in a place where I'm scrambling to offload a property at the bottom of a buyers market.

I just wanted to pick the brains of the more seasoned veterans who have been through multiple ups and downs in the market over the years.

1. Do your reference this older data when doing your homework?

2. How much value you do you place in old rent historical given that there is obviously inflation etc.

Of course none of us has a crystal ball and rent can always come crashing back down with the change of tides... but I figured i'd start up a discussion.